| Survi ∼ Binomial(n[i], p[i]) | [likelihood] |
|---|---|
| logit(p[i]) = αSEASON[i] | [unique log-odds for each round i by season] |
| α SEASON∼ Normal(α,σ) | [varying intercepts prior] |
| α ∼ Normal(0,1) | [prior for average season] |
| σ ∼ Cauchy(0,1) | [prior for standard deviation of season] |
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