Table 1.

Results from the Bayesian multilevel binomial model allowing for between-season variation at level 2.

Round	Estimate (95% credible interval)	Survival probability (95% credible interval), inverse logit estimate
1	3.62 (2.71–4.69)	0.97 (0.94–0.99)
2	2.64 (1.95–3.38)	0.93 (0.88–0.97)
3	1.93 (1.39–2.51)	0.87 (0.80–0.92)
4	1.61 (1.11–2.14)	0.83 (0.75–0.89)
5	1.25 (0.78–1.75)	0.78 (0.69–0.85)
6	0.95 (0.48–1.42)	0.72 (0.62–0.81)
7	0.68 (0.23–1.13)	0.66 (0.56–0.76)
8	0.64 (0.20–1.10)	0.65 (0.55–0.75)
9	0.57 (0.13–1.02)	0.64 (0.53–0.53)
10	0.50 (0.06–0.94)	0.62 (0.51–0.72)
11	0.35 (−0.08 to 0.79)	0.59 (0.48–0.69)
12	0.22 (−0.20 to 0.64)	0.55 (0.45–0.65)
13	0.15 (−0.30 to 0.60)	0.54 (0.43–0.65)
14	0.15 (−0.29 to 0.58)	0.54 (0.43–0.64)
15	0.08 (−0.34 to 0.51)	0.52 (0.42–0.62)
16	−0.05 (−0.47 to 0.36)	0.49 (0.38–0.59)
17	−0.12 (−0.55 to 0.31)	0.47 (0.37–0.58)
19	−0.32 (−0.75 to 0.11)	0.42 (0.32–0.53)
20	−0.36 (−0.79 to 0.06)	0.41 (0.31–0.51)
21	−0.39 (−0.82 to 0.03)	0.40 (0.31–0.51)
22	−0.39 (−0.82 to 0.05)	0.40 (0.31–0.51)
23	−0.43 (−0.88 to 0.01)	0.39 (0.20–0.50)
24	−0.49 (−0.93 to −0.04)	0.38 (0.28–0.49)
25	−0.60 (−1.04 to −0.16)	0.35 (0.26–0.46)
26	−0.71 (−1.15 to −0.27)	0.33 (0.24–0.43)
27	−0.79(−1.24 to −0.36)	0.31 (0.22–0.41)
28	−0.83 (−1.28 to −0.38)	0.30 (0.22–0.41)
29	−0.86 (−1.33 to −0.42)	0.30 (0.21–0.40)
30	−0.87 (−1.33 to −0.42)	0.30 (0.21–0.40)
31	−0.86 (−1.33 to −0.42)	0.30 (0.21–0.40)
32	−0.87 (−1.32 to −0.42)	0.30 (0.21–0.40)
33	−0.86 (−1.32 to −0.41)	0.30 (0.21–0.40)
34	−0.90 (−1.36 to −0.46)	0.29 (0.20–0.39)
35	−0.95 (−1.41 to −0.50)	0.28 (0.20–0.38)
36	−0.94 (−1.40 to −0.49)	0.28 (0.20–0.38)
37	−0.98 (−1.45 to −0.54)	0.27 (0.19–0.37)
38	−1.03 (−1.50 to −0.57)	0.26 (0.18–0.36)