Table 2.

Baseline model summary table for the GAMM analyses of the smoothed fixed effects of space, year and altitude on phenologies of the four groups studied (Equation 1, Figure 1). The random effects were species and season. EDF refers to the effective degrees of freedom and is estimated within the model. The table shows simply that all model terms contributed and were highly significant. Based on the magnitude of the F statistic, space was most important for aphids, year was highest ranking for birds and altitude for butterflies and moths

Smoother term	EDF	F	p
Aphid first flight
Lat, Lon	3.91	1,172	<0.001
Year	8.76	683	<0.001
Altitude	8.89	98	<0.001
Deviance explained by model = 59.1%
Bird first egg day
Lat, Lon	19.04	2,034	<0.001
Year	8.54	9,296	<0.001
Altitude	7.43	489	<0.001
Deviance explained by model = 61.3%
Moth median day of flight
Lat, Lon	8.71	3,845	<0.001
Year	8.68	2,555	<0.001
Altitude	8.80	10,624	<0.001
Deviance explained by model = 97.7%
Butterfly mean day of abundance
Lat, Lon	18.20	1,288	<0.001
Year	9.00	4,130	<0.001
Altitude	8.53	4,852	<0.001
Deviance explained by model = 89.1%