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. 2019 Jun 13;9:8590. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-45135-w

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© The Author(s) 2019

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Frequencies of aCD11b+ monocytes and CD86^hi naïve B cells distinguish SLE patients with early or late flare in random forest modeling. (a) Baseline frequencies of activated CD11b positive (aCD11b+) monocytes (top) and CD86^high B cells (bottom) were quantified by flow cytometry in patients with early flare (n = 21) or late flare (n = 13) after steroid-induced disease suppression. For both comparisons, p < 0.05 by Mann-Whitney U test. (b) Random forest modeling with cellular, clinical, cytokine, and transcriptional panels identified late flare patients and three subgroups of early flare patients. The random forest model proximity matrix is shown as a multi-dimensionally reduced plot, where each point represents a patient, and the distance between two points represents dissimilarity between patients. (c) The variables included in the final random forest model for each independent panel (cellular, clinical, cytokine, and genetic module) are shown in a radial plot. Variables are grouped according to their involvement in the lymphoid, complement/cell adhesion, or myeloid system. Lines represent normalized values for the late flare group and the three early flare subgroups, as indicated.