Table 2.
Models for early vs. late SLE flare after steroid-induced disease suppression, based on random forest.
| Panel | Variables in final model | Sensitivity (95% CI) | Specificity (95% CI) | PPV (95% CI) | NPV (95% CI) | Overall error (% ±SD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cellular | %aCD11b + Monocytes, %CD86hi Naïve B | 0.92 (0.64, 1.00) | 0.79 (0.44, 0.97) | 0.85 (0.56, 0.98) | 0.89 (0.52, 1.00) | 13.56 ± 1.42 |
| Clinical | Complement C3 | 0.93 (0.68, 1.00) | 0.64 (0.35, 0.87) | 0.74 (0.49, 0.91) | 0.90 (0.55, 1.00) | 20.69 ± 0.01 |
| Cytokine | SDF1, ICAM-1, IP-10 | 0.72 (0.51, 0.88) | 0.75 (0.35, 0.97) | 0.90 (0.68, 0.99) | 0.46 (0.19, 0.75) | 27.05 ± 0.60 |
| Expression modules | M5.1 (Inflammation), M4.14 (Monocytes), M4.1 (T Cells) | 0.71 (0.42, 0.92) | 0.57 (0.18, 0.90) | 0.77 (0.46, 0.95) | 0.50 (0.16, 0.84) | 33.33 ± 0.01 |
| Total | %CD11b + Monocytes, %CD86hi Naïve B | 1.00 (0.29, 1.00) | 0.61 (0.15, 0.95) | 0.69 (0.24, 0.96) | 1.00 (0.19, 1.00) | 20.89 ± 3.65 |
PPV: positive predictive value, NPV: negative predictive value.