Table 4.
Distribution of Mid-Century Temperature Changes, Excess Heat Stress Mortality, and Changes in Mortality Rates per 100,00 Population by County Urbanization Class.
| Metric | Basu, Domenici & Samet, 2005 (Mean Apparent Temperature) | Zanobetti & Schwartz, 2008 (Mean Apparent Temperature) | Medina-Ramón & Schwartz, 2007 (Minimum Temperature) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 km | 36 km | 12 km | 36 km | 12 km | 36 km | |||
| 2007–2069 Change in Temperature, °C (Min., Mean, Max.) | −2.61 | −2.95 | −2.61 | −2.94 | −4.51 | −4.53 | ||
| 3.44 | 4.21 | 3.43 | 4.21 | 2.06 | 2.14 | |||
| 12.03 | 16.39 | 12.02 | 16.46 | 10.24 | 12.44 | |||
| Urban class (# counties): | ||||||||
| Rural/noncore (1,459) | −2.61 | −2.95 | −2.61 | −2.94 | −4.51 | −4.31 | ||
| 3.47 | 4.35 | 3.47 | 4.35 | 2.18 | 2.16 | |||
| 12.03 | 16.39 | 12.02 | 16.46 | 10.24 | 12.44 | |||
| Periurban (499) | −2.43 | −2.48 | −2.43 | −2.42 | −4.24 | −4.53 | ||
| 3.13 | 3.75 | 3.12 | 3.75 | 1.52 | 1.8 | |||
| 9.38 | 13.36 | 9.6 | 13.36 | 7.51 | 9.54 | |||
| Suburban (289) | −0.33 | −0.88 | −0.27 | −0.87 | −2.3 | −2.62 | ||
| 3.67 | 4.15 | 3.66 | 4.15 | 2.26 | 2.46 | |||
| 9.53 | 12.07 | 9.46 | 12.02 | 8.08 | 10.08 | |||
| Core metro (40) | 0.05 | −0.29 | 0.06 | −0.3 | −2.45 | −2.16 | ||
| 4.44 | 5.01 | 4.44 | 5.01 | 3.37 | 3.55 | |||
| 8.98 | 11.88 | 8.93 | 11.88 | 8 | 9.22 | |||
| Population | 48,603,337 | 48,603,337 | 242,534,475 | 242,534,475 | 242,534,475 | 242,534,475 | ||
| Urban class (# counties): | ||||||||
| Rural/noncore (1,459) | 10,374,823 | 10,374,823 | 44,638,833 | 44,638,833 | 44,638,833 | 44,638,833 | ||
| Periurban (499) | 14,170,419 | 14,170,419 | 70,730,896 | 70,730,896 | 70,730,896 | 70,730,896 | ||
| Suburban (289) | 16,200,902 | 16,200,902 | 81,654,315 | 81,654,315 | 81,654,315 | 81,654,315 | ||
| Core metro (40) | 7,857,193 | 7,857,193 | 45,510,431 | 45,510,431 | 45,510,431 | 45,510,431 | ||
| Additional Deaths (95% Confidence Interval) | 11,562 (2,641, 20,095) | 13,177 (3,027, 22,818) | 5,870 (3,725, 8,005) | 6,736 (4,277, 9,182) | 8,767 (5,030, 12,475) | 9,739 (5,590, 13,856) | ||
| Urban class (# counties): | ||||||||
| Rural/noncore (1,459) | 2,283 (522, 3,967) | 2,559 (588, 4,433) | 1,138 (722, 1,552) | 1,285 (816, 1,751) | 1,423 (817, 2,024) | 1,487 (853, 2,115) | ||
| Periurban (499) | 2,877 (657, 5,001) | 3,355 (770, 5,815) | 1,480 (939, 2,018) | 1,739 (1,104, 2,370) | 1,789 (1,027, 2,544) | 2,181 (1,252, 3,103) | ||
| Suburban (289) | 4,061 (926, 7,068) | 4,619 (1,060, 8,005) | 2,051 (1,301, 2,797) | 2,344 (1,488, 3,196) | 3,441 (1,973, 4,899) | 3,783 (2,170, 5,384) | ||
| Core metro (40) | 2,341 (536, 4,060) | 2,644 (610, 4,565) | 1,202 (763, 1,638) | 1,369 (869, 1,865) | 2,114 (1,213, 3,007) | 2,289 (1,314, 3,254) | ||
| Change in Mortality Rate (per 100,000) | 20.20 | 24.32 | 2.40 | 2.89 | 3.23 | 3.35 | ||
| Urban class (# counties): | ||||||||
| Rural/noncore (1,459) | 20.55 | 25.34 | 2.53 | 3.12 | 3.51 | 3.53 | ||
| Periurban (499) | 18.22 | 21.42 | 2.06 | 2.41 | 2.27 | 2.56 | ||
| Suburban (289) | 20.95 | 23.48 | 2.33 | 2.63 | 3.31 | 3.63 | ||
| Core metro (40) | 26.53 | 29.57 | 2.52 | 2.81 | 4.43 | 4.67 | ||