Figure 1. Estimating FOI from age-specific incidence data in Thailand, Colombia, Brazil and Mexico.
(A) Examples of the age-specific incidence of dengue observed in two settings with very high endemic transmission (Thailand 1- Udon Thani, Thailand; Brazil 1 Pernambuco, Brazil) and two settings with lower and very low transmission (Thailand 2 = Chiang Mai, Thailand; Brazil 2 = Parana, Brazil). (B) Maps of our estimates of the FOI for the four countries. (C) Correlation between our estimates of the force of infection, with estimates derived from age-stratified serological data (gold standard) for 16 settings where we had both types of data (Thailand: Rayong (Rodríguez-Barraquer et al., 2014); Bangkok (Imai et al., 2015); Ratchaburi (Imai et al., 2015); Lop Buri, Narathiwat, Trang, Ayuttayah (Vongpunsawad et al., 2017). Brazil: Pernambuco (Rodriguez-Barraquer et al., 2011); Salvador (Wilson et al., 2007). Colombia (unpublished). Mexico: Morelos (Amaya-Larios et al., 2014), Yucatan (Hladish et al., 2016). The locations of the specific cities are shown in the maps in panel B.
Figure 1—figure supplement 1. Correlation between estimates of the FOI (derived from age-specific case data) and alternative metrics calculated directly from age-specific incidence data.
Figure 1—figure supplement 2. Correlation between estimates of the FOI derived from seroprevalence data (the gold standard) and several metrics derived from age-specific case data, for 16 spatial units where we had the two sources of data.
