Figure 3.

MaxCal model reproduces long-term cell behavior (A) (top) Example track of naive transitions. Possible patterns are highlighted: three 2+ in a row and four 1- in a row are given as examples. This panel is illustrative- though the track shown does correspond to the shape transition in the cartoon, there are spaces in between all transitions here, and actual 3-in-a-row transitions would be even denser. (Bottom) Observed versus predicted probabilities of various patterns of transitions for simulations containing (red) or ignoring (blue) short-term temporal correlations. The black line corresponds to perfect matching of predicted and observed probabilities. Patterns are always for a single transition type (e.g. 1+ only), and are of the form “N transitions in T time-steps” for varying N and T, e.g. three 1+ transitions in four time-steps. T runs from 10 to 20 in unit steps, N runs from T-8 to T in unit steps. (B) Jensen-Shannon divergence between patterns of transitions observed in the data and both correlated (red) and uncorrelated (blue) simulations. (C) Probability of observing repeated transitions of a single type under 3 models- the correlated model (red), the uncorrelated model (blue), and when observed (black). Results shown for 1+ (left) and 1− (right). The x-axis gives the number of repeats in a row of this transition.