Table 5.
Impact of all tobacco control measures including taxation
| Real price (RMB/20) |
Excise share (% price) |
Smoking rate (%) |
Adult smokers (million) |
Cigarette packs (billion) |
Real excise revenue (billion RMB) |
|
| 2016 estimate | 12.8 | 34.5 | 27.7 | 320 | 117 | 521 |
| 2030 prediction | 19.3 (19.3~19.3) | 44.0 (43~45) | 19.7 (18.2~21.3) | 241 (222~261) | 75 (60~90) | 633 (507~768) |
| Absolute change | 6.4 (6.4~6.4) | 10 (9~11) | −8.0 (−9.6~−6.4) | −78 (−97~−59) | −43 (−58~−27) | 112 (−14~247) |
| Relative change | 50 (50~50) | 28 (27~29) | −29 (−34~−23) | −25 (−30~−18) | −37 (−49~−23) | 21 (−3~47) |
Note: US$1=6.64 RMB.