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. 2019 Jun 6;9:200. doi: 10.3389/fcimb.2019.00200

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Copyright © 2019 Ripoll, Wallqvist and Chaudhury.

This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

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Estimating the longitudinal risk of ADE from simulation data. (A) Hypothetical scenarios of changes in DENV-specific serum Ab concentration over time (top) from the convalescent phase of a primary infection (t₀) to a time point where set-point titers are achieved (t₂), where t₁ indicates 1 year post infection. Scenarios with increasingly higher set-point titers are shown from brown to purple. The bottom panel shows the corresponding TS Ab fractions for each scenario. (B) Contour plots for ADE as a function of fine specificity, expressed as TS fraction, and total Ab concentration. Scenarios are plotted using corresponding colors in (A) for homotypic (top) and heterotypic (bottom) conditions. Plots are derived from simulations of smooth virions with a prM content of 20%.