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. 2019 Apr 10;69(6):2636–2651. doi: 10.1002/hep.30572

Figure 3.

Figure 3

Validation of predictive performance of the top two miRNA ratios in an independent cohort and analyses of the complete data set. miRNAs were analyzed by qPCR in 98 subjects of which 8 (8.1%) experienced the adverse outcome postsurgery. (A) The predictive performance of the previously defined multivariate logistic prediction models was validated using ROC analyses. The performance is described by the AUC and whether the classification deviates significantly from the random assignment (AUC = 0.5) is indicated by the P value. The percentage of true postoperative LD on predicted controls and predicted LD were analyzed for both model‐defined cutoffs: P > 0.59 and P > 0.68. The two cutoffs were further analyzed for their performance to predict postoperative LD in the entire cohort (B). Performance was described using SN, SP, PPV, NPV, and the OR, which is the ratio of odds of suffering from postoperative LD associated with a positive test result compared with a negative test result. The low‐stringency cutoff (P = 0.59) yielded PPV and NPV values of 0.70 and 0.89, respectively, whereas the stringent cutoff (P = 0.68) resulted in a PPV of 0.83, with an NPV of 0.85 (B). This means that 83% of the patients who tested positive suffered from postoperative LD, whereas 85% who tested negative did not suffer from postoperative LD. In contrast, 15% who tested negative did in fact suffer from postoperative LD. The ORs for an adverse event were 18.66 (P < 0.0001) and infinite (P < 0.0001), respectively. ROC curve analysis was performed for the microRNA model to compare its performance against that of standard liver function parameters (B). ORs for other adverse postoperative outcomes were analyzed for both model cutoffs: severe morbidity (C) and mortality (D). Postoperative ICU stay (E) and hospitalization (F) were significantly prolonged in our predicted risk groups (boxplots are shown without outliers; P values from two‐sided Wilcoxon rank‐sum test). Abbreviations: PDR, plasma disappearance rate; R15, retention rate at 15 minutes.