Table 5.

Comparison between actual and predicted monthly morbidity in 2014.

Month	Actual value	Predicted value	95% confidence limit	Error absolute value	Absolute percentage error
Jan	0.97	0.99	0.53–1.46	0.02	0.02
Feb	0.97	1.10	0.55–1.65	0.13	0.13
Mar	1.48	1.33	0.74–1.92	0.15	0.10
Apr	2.06	1.62	1.00–2.23	0.44	0.21
May	2.09	2.12	1.50–2.75	0.03	0.01
Jun	2.19	1.45	0.82–2.09	0.74	0.34
July	1.97	1.41	0.76–2.05	0.56	0.28
Aug	1.58	1.02	0.36–1.67	0.56	0.35
Sep	1.03	0.90	0.23–1.56	0.13	0.13
Oct	0.55	0.88	0.20–1.55	0.33	0.60
Nov	0.74	0.82	0.14–1.50	0.08	0.11
Dec	0.90	0.99	0.31–1.69	0.09	0.10

Note. The error absolute value is the D value between actual value and predicted value. The absolute percentage error is the ratio of error absolute value and actual value. MAPE is the mean value of absolute percentage error, and the value is 19.83%.