Table 1. Model comparison in terms of AIC and one-step-ahead forecast (log[s(P,x)]).
| Distribution | Endemic | Covariate | AIC | log(s[P,x]) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A | Poi | S = 1 | Flu | 5,107.61 | 5.805 |
| B | NB | S = 1 | Flu | 4,043.95 | 4.408 |
| C | NB | rain + temp, lag = 1 | Flu | 4,029.19 | 4.400 |
| D | NB | rain + temp, lags = 5 (pweather = 0.8) | Flu | 4,027.82 | 4.390 |
| E | NB | rain + temp, lags = 5 (pweather = 0.8) | Flu + rhinov | 3,997.93 | 4.361 |
| F | NB | rain + temp, lags = 5 (pweather = 0.8) | Flu + rhinov + RSV | 3,992.95 | 4.334 |
Abbreviations: AIC, Akaike information criterion; NB, negative binomial; Poi, Poisson; rhinov, rhinovirus; RSV, respiratory syncytial virus; temp, temperature