Table 4.
Bayesian model averaging models for early post-LT outcomes.
| Stage 2–3 Acute kidney injury | Percentage of inclusion | Effect | 95% Credible Interval | Probability of significant association btw HOPE and outcome | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOPE | 36 | 0.29 | 0.09 | 0.98 | 98% |
| Creatinine (mg/dl) | 89 | 1.52 | 1.09 | 2.13 | |
| GRBWR | 84 | 0.41 | 0.22 | 0.78 | |
| D-MELD | 49 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| MELD | 48 | 1.06 | 1.00 | 1.13 | |
| Donor Age | 38 | 0.98 | 0.96 | 0.99 | |
| DRI | 6 | 0.57 | 0.28 | 1.17 | |
| BAR | 5 | 1.04 | 0.99 | 1.10 | |
| Severe post-reperfusion syndrome | |||||
| HOPE | 16 | 0.21 | 0.03 | 1.66 | 93% |
| D-MELD | 16 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Graft weight (gr) | 13 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Creatinine (mg/dl) | 11 | 1.26 | 0.99 | 1.62 | |
| MELD | 8 | 1.04 | 1.00 | 1.08 | |
| Early allograft dysfunction | |||||
| HOPE | 6 | 0.44 | 0.15 | 1.31 | 93% |
| Macrosteatosis ≥15% | 100 | 8.37 | 3.74 | 18.71 | |
| Cold ischemia time (min) | 100 | 1.01 | 1.00 | 1.01 | |
| Graft_weight (gr) | 8 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| GRBWR | 8 | 1.60 | 0.89 | 2.87 | |
| ALT peak | |||||
| HOPE | 23 | −394.83 | −759.48 | −30.18 | 98% |
| Macrosteatosis ≥15% | 100 | 704.07 | 419.51 | 988.63 | |
| Ascites at LT | 96 | −324.37 | −532.67 | −116.08 | |
| Cold ischemia time (min) | 82 | 1.71 | 0.49 | 2.94 | |
| Donor age | 49 | −7.22 | −12.77 | −1.66 | |
| MELD | 45 | 32.12 | −1.10 | 65.34 | |
| Life support | 29 | −943.02 | −1758.08 | −127.96 | |
| D-MELD | 23 | −0.40 | −0.87 | 0.07 | |
| BMI | 12 | 24.93 | −2.22 | 52.07 | |
| BAR | 8 | −18.17 | −40.01 | 3.67 | |
| AST peak | |||||
| HOPE | 13 | −437.76 | −933.39 | 57.87 | 96% |
| Macrosteatosis ≥15% | 100 | 1399.31 | 1011.23 | 1787.38 | |
| Cold ischemia time | 100 | 3.27 | 1.68 | 4.87 | |
| BMI | 99 | 72.65 | 34.29 | 111.01 | |
| GRBWR | 99 | 787.44 | 497.60 | 1077.29 | |
| Ascites at LT | 57 | −339.98 | −611.01 | −68.96 | |
| Donor age | 15 | −6.94 | −14.45 | 0.58 | |
The strength of the association between each variable and the analyzed outcome is given by the percentage of inclusion the different models. Only variables with a percentage of inclusion >5% are shown. In case of dichotomous outcomes (acute kidney injury, post-reperfusion syndrome and early allograft dysfunction) effect represents the odds ratio of the outcome for unit variation of the associated variable; for continuous outcomes (ALT and AST peak) effect represents the mean variation of the outcome for unit variation of the associated variable. Upper and lower columns represent the lower and higher values of the likelihood interval. HOPE was associated with a 71%, 79% and 56% mean reduction of the risk of stage 2–3 acute kidney injury, post-reperfusion syndrome and early allograft dysfunction, respectively, and with a 394 U/L and 437 U/L mean reduction of ALT and AST peak, respectively. The probability of significant association (last column) is a measure of the strength of the association and represents the probability HOPE use reduces the risk (i.e. the odds ratio is <1) for stage 2–3 acute kidney injury, post-reperfusion syndrome and early allograft dysfunction, respectively, and the probability HOPE use reduces ALT and AST peak. Abbreviations: LT, liver transplant; GRBWR, graft-to-recipient body weight ratio; MELD, model for end-stage liver disease score; D-MELD, donor age * MELD score; HOPE, hypothermic oxygenated perfusion; DRI, donor risk index; BAR, balance of risk score.