TABLE 1—
ARIMA Model Forecasts of Mortality Rates Overall and by Sex, Age, and Top Five Causes of Death: Puerto Rico, September and October 2017
| Variable and Month | Population Estimate, No. | Observed Ratea | Forecast Ratea (95% CI) | Estimated Deaths, No. | Excess Deaths, Point Estimate (SE; 95% CI) |
| Total excess deaths | |||||
| September | 3 493 593 | 10.20 | 8.08 (7.30, 8.87) | 2 321.48 | 607 (114.85; 381, 832) |
| October | 3 489 119 | 10.26 | 8.24 (7.32, 9.16) | 2 442.12 | 598 (138.84; 326, 870) |
| Men | |||||
| September | 1 667 072 | 11.68 | 9.09 (8.16, 10.02) | 2 609.73 | 356 (136.60; 228, 483) |
| October | 1 664 732 | 11.34 | 9.39 (8.31, 10.46) | 2 781.41 | 276 (162.41; 124, 428) |
| Women | |||||
| September | 1 826 521 | 8.84 | 7.13 (6.29, 7.97) | 2 048.20 | 256 (133.91; 130, 382) |
| October | 1 824 387 | 9.27 | 7.19 (6.31, 8.08) | 2 130.90 | 323 (136.11; 186, 460) |
| Aged ≥ 60 yb | |||||
| September | 840 835 | 35.38 | 27.60 (24.34, 30.86) | 7 926.03 | 537 (477.40; 312, 763) |
| October | 842 230 | 35.35 | 28.36 (24.59, 32.12) | 8 402.87 | 501 (569.83; 231, 770) |
| Heart disease | |||||
| September | . . . | 1.95 | 1.56 (1.33, 1.79) | 448.63 | 105 (33.35; 43, 166) |
| October | . . . | 2.10 | 1.57 (1.31, 1.82) | 463.86 | 148 (38.85; 76, 219) |
| Other causesc | |||||
| September | . . . | 1.83 | 1.42 (1.18, 1.65) | 406.51 | 111 (34.93; 47, 176) |
| October | . . . | 1.79 | 1.45 (1.19, 1.72) | 431.00 | 93 (40.68; 18, 168) |
| Diabetes | |||||
| September | . . . | 1.30 | 0.88 (0.68, 1.07) | 251.28 | 115 (28.09; 63, 166) |
| October | . . . | 1.13 | 0.84 (0.64, 1.05) | 249.69 | 80 (31.15; 23, 138) |
| Alzheimer’s disease | |||||
| September | . . . | 0.84 | 0.69 (0.55, 0.82) | 196.87 | 43 (19.62; 7, 79) |
| October | . . . | 0.92 | 0.64 (0.50, 0.78) | 189.71 | 79 (21.63; 39, 118) |
| Septicemia | |||||
| September | . . . | 0.37 | 0.22 (0.13, 0.30) | 62.30 | 42 (12.56; 19, 66) |
| October | . . . | 0.34 | 0.20 (0.12, 0.29) | 60.30 | 39 (12.97; 15, 63) |
Note. ARIMA = auto-regressive integrated moving average; CI = confidence interval. Causes of death were determined through International Classification of Diseases (10th Revision [ICD-10]; Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization; 2016, https://icd.who.int/browse10/2016/en) codes for heart disease (codes I00–I09, I11, I13, I20–I51), diabetes (codes E10–E14), Alzheimer’s disease (code G30), and septicemia (codes A40–A41).
a
All rates are per 1000 residents.
b
No excess deaths were observed in the other age groups.
c
No information was available on what constituted “other causes,” including ICD-10 codes.