Table 2.
Annual Mortality and Morbidity Attributable to Fine and Coarse Dust Exposures
| Pollutant | Health endpoint | Age (years) | Reference burden (per year) | Future scenario | 20‐year averaged excess burden relative to reference (per year) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2030 | 2050 | 2070 | 2090 | |||||
| Fine dust | Hospitalization, cardiovascular less myocardial infarctions | 65–99 | 130 | AQ constant | 110 | 210 | 270 | 310 |
| RCP4.5 | 140 (120,160) | 260 (250,290) | 350 (320,390) | 410 (360,490) | ||||
| RCP8.5 | 140 (120,150) | 280 (250,310) | 390 (350,460) | 470 (410,570) | ||||
| Hospitalization, nonfatal acute myocardial infarction | 65–99 | 340 | AQ constant | 280 | 530 | 660 | 770 | |
| RCP4.5 | 351 (300,400) | 670 (620,730) | 860 (790,970) | 1000 (900,1200) | ||||
| RCP8.5 | 354 (310,380) | 710 (640,790) | 980 (870,1100) | 1200 (1000,1500) | ||||
| Hospitalization, respiratory | 65–99 | 130 | AQ constant | 110 | 210 | 270 | 320 | |
| RCP4.5 | 140 (120,160) | 260 (250,290) | 350 (320,400) | 420 (370,500) | ||||
| RCP8.5 | 140 (120,150) | 280 (250,310) | 400 (350,460) | 480 (420,590) | ||||
| Mortality, all‐cause | 30–99 | 840 | AQ constant | 290 | 680 | 920 | 1100 | |
| RCP4.5 | 420 (320,510) | 930 (850,1100) | 1300 (1200,1500) | 1600 (1300,2000) | ||||
| RCP8.5 | 430 (340,480) | 1000 (880,1200) | 1500 (1300,1800) | 1900 (1600,2400) | ||||
| Mortality, cardiopulmonary | 30–99 | 750 | AQ constant | 180 | 580 | 820 | 1000 | |
| RCP4.5 | 290 (210,370) | 800 (730,900) | 1200 (1000,1300) | 1400 (1200,1800) | ||||
| RCP8.5 | 290 (220,340) | 870 (750,1000) | 1400 (1200,1600) | 1700 (1400,2100) | ||||
| Mortality, lung cancer | 30–99 | 100 | AQ constant | 21 | 34 | 43 | 58 | |
| RCP4.5 | 35 (24,44) | 55 (48,64) | 70 (62,87) | 94 (76,120) | ||||
| RCP8.5 | 35 (26,41) | 61 (50,74) | 87 (72,110) | 120 (93,150) | ||||
| Coarse dust | Emergency department visits, asthma | 0–99 | 1700 | AQ constant | 230 | 470 | 710 | 810 |
| RCP4.5 | 400 (260,510) | 740 (650,830) | 1100 (950,1300) | 1300 (1000,1600) | ||||
| RCP8.5 | 410 (290,470) | 820 (680,970) | 1300 (1100,1600) | 1500 (1200,1900) | ||||
| Mortality, cardiovasculara | 0–99 | 460 | AQ constant | 120 | 370 | 520 | 640 | |
| RCP4.5 | 170 (130,210) | 480 (440,520) | 680 (630,760) | 850 (740,1000) | ||||
| RCP8.5 | 180 (140,200) | 510 (460,570) | 770 (690,900) | 970 (840,1200) | ||||
Note. The historical reference burdens are estimated using 2010 population and baseline incidence rates combined with 1988–2005 dust concentrations. Values shown for future scenarios at 20‐year intervals are the excess burden relative to the reference value. “AQ constant” projections are due to the effects of changing population and baseline incidence rates. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections are due to the combined effects of changing dust concentrations, population, and baseline incidence rates. For each health endpoint and 20‐year era, the total number of incident cases is equal to the sum of the reference burden and the excess burden projected for each future scenario. Values in parentheses represent the range of variability in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble for a given RCP scenario. Values are rounded to two significant figures.
Cardiovascular mortality endpoint approximated from cardiopulmonary incidence.