Table 2. Comparing observed survival (Kaplan–Meier) versus predicted (Model FP) biochemical failure-free progression at 3, 5 and 10 years by three prognostic groups and Gleason score of 7 (≤ 6 and 7) on 249 men treated by RP for prostate cancer.
| Variable predictor | 3 years | 5 years | 10 years | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survival observeda % (95% CI) |
Average survival predictedb |
Survival observeda % (95% CI) |
Average survival predictedb |
Survival observeda % (95% CI) |
Average survival predictedb | |||
| Prognostic Group |
A n = 142 |
Gleason score 6 n = 127 |
100 | 99.99 | 100 | 99.81 | 97.84 (91.63–99.45) |
98.81 |
| Gleason score of 7 n = 15 |
100 | 99.60 | 100 | 99.20 | NO | 97.95 | ||
| B n = 53 |
Gleason score 6 n = 37 |
100 | 99.88 | 100 | 95.46 | 90.00 (47.30–98.53) |
74.77 | |
| Gleason score of 7 n = 16 |
100 | 93.17 | 100 | 86.77 | 63.47 (42.06–78.77) |
69.70 | ||
| C n = 54 |
Gleason score 6 n =33 |
96.97 (80.37–99.57) |
93.65 | 78.79 (60.59–89.27) |
77.60 | 19.03 (7.01–35.50) | 21.81 | |
| Gleason score of 7 n = 21 |
38.10 (18.31–57.78) |
52.87 | 14.29 (3.57–32.12) |
28.29 | 4.76 (0.33–19.70) |
4.60 | ||
%: percentage; CI = confidence interval; ≤ = Equal or less than; NO = not observed
a
Observed survival = Kaplan–Meier Survival
b
Predicted Survival Model FP = average proportion of mean survival for a given group determined on Flexible Parametric (FP) survival model. The FP model incorporates: age (continuous variable), prognostic group B (dummy variable), prognostic group C (dummy variable) and Gleason score of 7 (dummy variable) with one degrees of freedom for the restricted cubic spline function used for the baseline hazard rate (DF1) and also, consider the dummy variables Gleason score of 7 as variable time-dependent effect using one degree of freedom for its fit in model (DFTVC1).