Table 1.
Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models for risk of mortality in severe malaria (case definition includes the > 2500 parasites per μl threshold)
| Predictors | Univariable | Multivariable (all variables) | Multivariable (restricted) | Interaction model | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds ratio | p value | Odds ratio | p value | Odds ratio | p value | Odds ratio | p value | |
| Time (1989–2003) | Reference | |||||||
| Time (2004–2008) | .7 (.55 to .9) | 0.005 | NA | NA | .68 (.48 to .97) | 0.03 | .8 (.53 to 1.2) | 0.28 |
| Time (2009–2016) | 1.09 (.88 to 1.37) | 0.43 | .75 (.46 to 1.24) | 0.26 | 1.05 (.68 to 1.6) | 0.83 | .8 (.48 to 1.32) | 0.38 |
| Acidosis | 7.07 (5.77 to 8.67) | < 0.0001 | 3.31 (2.09 to 5.25) | < 0.0001 | 2.75 (2.01 to 3.76) | < 0.0001 | 2.83 (2.06 to 3.89) | < 0.0001 |
| Age (years) | .96 (.93 to .99) | 0.02 | 1.08 (.98 to 1.18) | 0.11 | 1.05 (.98 to 1.12) | 0.19 | 1.05 (.98 to 1.13) | 0.16 |
| Cerebral | 7.63 (6.59 to 8.83) | < 0.0001 | 3.81 (2.54 to 5.74) | < 0.0001 | 4.21 (3.17 to 5.57) | < 0.0001 | 4.38 (3.3 to 5.82) | < 0.0001 |
| Compensated shock | 4.76 (3.4 to 6.66) | < 0.0001 | 1.03 (.47 to 2.23) | 0.94 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Hyperparasitaemia | 1.19 (1.02 to 1.38) | 0.03 | .89 (.58 to 1.37) | 0.6 | NA | NA | .75 (.51 to 1.09) | 0.13 |
| Hypoglycaemia | 8.81 (6.98 to 11.1) | < 0.0001 | 1.93 (1.17 to 3.2) | 0.01 | 3 (2.17 to 4.14) | < 0.0001 | 3.2 (2.3 to 4.45) | < 0.0001 |
| Kidney injury | 6.09 (4.43 to 8.37) | < 0.0001 | 2.45 (1.29 to 4.63) | 0.006 | 2.76 (1.79 to 4.25) | < 0.0001 | 2.64 (1.71 to 4.09) | < 0.0001 |
| Mx convulsions | 2.21 (1.67 to 2.92) | < 0.0001 | .92 (.56 to 1.51) | 0.75 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Jaundice | 2.43 (1.49 to 3.98) | 0.0004 | .87 (.31 to 2.49) | 0.8 | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Prostration | 1.05 (.71 to 1.56) | 0.81 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| Resp. distress | 9.41 (7.69 to 11.5) | < 0.0001 | 2.23 (1.45 to 3.42) | 0.0002 | 1.92 (1.42 to 2.6) | < 0.0001 | 1.95 (1.44 to 2.65) | < 0.0001 |
| Severe anaemia | 2.24 (1.93 to 2.6) | < 0.0001 | 1.25 (.78 to 1.99) | 0.35 | 1.1 (.78 to 1.54) | 0.59 | 1.08 (.77 to 1.52) | 0.66 |
| Time (2004–2008) * Hyperparasitaemia | NA | NA | NA | NA | .63 (.29 to 1.34) | 0.23 | ||
| Time (2009–2016) * Hyperparasitaemia | NA | NA | NA | NA | 2.53 (1.07 to 5.97) | 0.03 | ||
Footnote: Odds ratios (ORs) are shown with 95% confidence intervals in brackets. Interaction terms are not relevant to univariable models. “NA” is shown for cells where the model was not applicable, and “-” is shown for cells with insufficient data (occurring where multiple seizures and other covariates were not collected between 2004 and 2009). Multivariable (restricted) refers to a model where non-significant predictors were excluded from the model