Table 3.
Basic model with effect of trajectory groups and mediators on ASCVD events using Cox proportional hazard model.
| HR (95% CI) in Model 1 | HR (95% CI) in Model 2 | |
|---|---|---|
| Trajectory group (1992–2004) | ||
| Group 1 (Low steady) | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Group 2 (Lowering) | 1.05 (0.92–1.20) | 1.05 (0.92–1.20) |
| Group 3 (High steady) | 1.11 (0.98–1.25) | 1.09 (0.97–1.23) |
| Group 4 (Rise and fall) | 1.13 (0.99–1.29) | 1.10 (0.96–1.25) |
| Group 5 (Very high steady) | 1.49 (1.33–1.68) | 1.46 (1.30–1.64) |
| Baseline variables (1992–1994) | ||
| Age, year | 1.04 (1.02–1.06) | 1.04 (1.02–1.06) |
| Body mass index, kg/m2 | 1.09 (1.07–1.11) | 1.07 (1.05–1.08) |
| Alcohol drinking | 1.01 (0.91–1.12) | 0.98 (0.88–1.09) |
| Exercise | 0.94 (0.85–1.05) | 0.96 (0.86–1.07) |
| Systolic BP, per 10 mmHg | 1.17 (1.13–1.21) | 1.10 (1.06–1.14) |
| Serum glucose, per 10 mg/dL | 0.99 (0.96–1.02) | 0.98 (0.95–1.01) |
| Total cholesterol, per 10 mg/dL | 1.05 (1.04–1.07) | 1.04 (1.02–1.05) |
| Mediators (2002–2004) | ||
| Systolic BP, per 10 mmHg | 1.19 (1.15–1.22) | |
| Serum glucose, per 10 mg/dL | 1.03 (1.01–1.04) | |
| Total cholesterol, per 10 mg/dL | 1.05 (1.02–1.04) | |
| Number of participants | 60,709 | 60,709 |
| Number ASCVD event | 2392 | 2392 |
| AIC | 51,847.85 (DF = 11) | 51670.78 (DF = 14) |
| Difference in AIC | 177.07 (DF = 3); p < 0.0001 |
AIC—Akaike information criterion; HR—hazard ratio; CI—confidence interval.