Table 4.

Basic model with effect of trajectory groups and mediators on ASCVD events, using Cox proportional hazard model.

	Ischemic Heart Disease	Total Stroke	Ischemic Stroke	Hemorrhagic Stroke
	HR (95% CI)	HR (95% CI)	HR (95% CI)	HR (95% CI)
Trajectory group (1992–2004)
Group 1 (Low steady)	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
Group 2 (Lowering)	1.18 (0.99–1.39)	0.99 (0.81–1.22)	1.03 (0.74–1.44)	0.79 (0.54–1.16)
Group 3 (High steady)	1.14 (0.94–1.38)	0.95 (0.75–1.21)	0.96 (0.66–1.42)	0.68 (0.43–1.09)
Group 4 (Rise and fall)	1.31 (1.09–1.57)	1.01 (0.81–1.26)	1.00 (0.69–1.44)	1.05 (0.71–1.56)
Group 5 (Very high steady)	1.63 (1.39–1.92)	1.36 (1.11–1.66)	1.58 (1.16–2.16)	1.07 (0.75–1.59)
Baseline variables (1992–1994)
Age, year	1.05 (1.02–1.09)	1.05 (1.01–1.09)	1.07 (1.01–1.14)	1.02 (0.95–1.09)
Body mass index, kg/m2	1.07 (1.05–1.10)	1.03 (1.00–1.06)	1.07 (1.02–1.11)	0.96 (0.91–1.02)
Alcohol drinking	0.89 (0.77–1.02)	1.10 (0.91–1.32)	1.03 (0.77–1.38)	1.39 (0.95–2.02)
Exercise	0.92 (0.79–1.02)	0.96 (0.80–1.16)	0.94 (0.70–1.27)	1.19 (0.85–1.66)
Systolic BP, per 10 mmHg	1.09 (1.06–1.14)	1.10 (1.03–1.16)	1.09 (0.99–1.20)	1.11 (1.00–1.25)
Serum glucose, per 10 mg/dL	0.98 (0.94–1.02)	0.95 (0.91–1.01)	0.90 (0.83–0.96)	1.05 (0.96–1.14)
Total cholesterol, per 10 mg/dL	1.04 (1.02–1.06)	1.03 (1.01–1.06)	1.06 (1.02–1.10)	1.00 (0.96–1.05)
Mediators (2002–2004)
Systolic BP, per 10 mmHg	1.10 (1.05–1.14)	1.29 (1.23–1.36)	1.20 (1.20–1.39)	1.45 (1.33–1.58)
Serum glucose, per 10 mg/dL	1.04 (1.02–1.06)	1.03 (1.00–1.06)	1.04 (1.01–1.06)	1.01 (0.96–1.07)
Total cholesterol, per 10 mg/dL	1.04 (1.02–1.06)	1.01 (0.96–1.04)	1.04 (1.01–1.07)	0.98 (0.94–1.02)
Number of participants	60,709	60,709	60,709	60,709
Number event	1246	795	316	222
AIC	26,970.28 (DF = 14)	17,156.18 (DF = 14)	6773.87 (DF = 14)	4789.69 (DF = 14)

AIC—Akaike information criterion; HR—hazard ratio; CI—confidence interval.