Table 2.
Univariate and Multivariate Cox Regression Analysis to Identify the Risk Factors of Incident Diabetes Mellitus, Including NAFLD Status Change Over Time as Determined by Ultrasonography
| Variable | Univariate analysis | Multivariate model 1 | Model 2 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
||||
| HR (95% CI) | p-value | HR (95% CI) | p-value | HR (95% CI) | p-value | |
| Age | 1.04 (1.03–1.06) | <0.001 | 1.02 (1.00–1.04) | 0.123 | 1.02 (1.00–1.04) | 0.039 |
| Male sex | 1.86 (1.28–2.70) | 0.001 | 0.69 (0.41–1.16) | 0.162 | 0.79 (0.50–1.26) | 0.324 |
| NAFLD status overtime | ||||||
| No NAFLD | 1 (Reference) | |||||
| Resolved NAFLD | 1.95 (0.74–5.12) | 0.177 | 1.22 (0.41–3.60) | 0.726 | 1.21 (0.41–3.57) | 0.733 |
| Incident NAFLD | 3.50 (2.05–5.96) | <0.001 | 2.39 (1.31–4.37) | 0.005 | 1.94 (1.08–3.50) | 0.026 |
| Persistent NAFLD | 7.49 (4.71–11.91) | <0.001 | 4.30 (2.41–7.68) | <0.001 | 3.59 (2.05–6.27) | <0.001 |
| Waist circumference (>80 cm for women, >90 cm for men) | 3.35 (2.41–4.66) | <0.001 | 1.07 (0.64–1.78) | 0.803 | ||
| BMI, kg/m2 | 1.23 (1.17–1.29) | <0.001 | 1.10 (0.99–1.21) | 0.063 | 1.06 (0.99–1.14) | 0.076 |
| Fasting glucose, mg/dL | 1.03 (1.03–1.03) | <0.001 | 1.03 (1.03–1.04) | <0.001 | 1.03 (1.03–1.03) | <0.001 |
| HDL cholesterol, mg/dL | 0.97 (0.69–0.99) | <0.001 | 1.01 (0.99–1.03) | 0.547 | ||
| LDL cholesterol, mg/dL | 1.01 (1.00–1.01) | <0.001 | 1.00 (1.00–1.01) | 0.878 | ||
| Uric acid (>6 mg/dL) | 1.56 (1.12–2.19) | 0.010 | 1.15 (0.76–1.74) | 0.523 | ||
| Current smoker | 1.36 (0.96–1.92) | 0.081 | 1.60 (1.03–2.47) | 0.036 | ||
| Hypertension | 1.91 (1.08–3.39) | 0.026 | 1.04 (0.55–1.98) | 0.902 | ||
| ALT (≥19 U/L for women & ≥30 U/L for men) | 2.28 (1.63–3.21) | <0.001 | 1.33 (0.89–2.00) | 0.160 | 1.63 (1.10–2.41) | 0.015 |
| GGT (>60 U/L) | 2.39 (1.57–3.64) | <0.001 | 0.99 (0.60–1.63) | 0.975 | ||
| Changes in obesity status | ||||||
| Normal to normal | 1 (Reference) | |||||
| Normal to obesity | 0.56 (0.35–0.90) | 0.017 | 2.48 (1.26–4.89) | 0.009 | ||
| Obesity to normal | 2.27 (1.36–3.78) | 0.02 | 1.42 (0.76–2.67) | 0.271 | ||
| Obesity to obesity | 1.59 (0.95–2.64) | 0.77 | 1.32 (0.78–2.23) | 0.301 | ||
Harrell’s C index; model 1: 0.857 (standard error estimates=0.026), model 2: 0.860 (standard error estimates=0.027).
NAFLD, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease; HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; BMI, body mass index; HDL, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; LDL, low-density lipoprotein; ALT, alanine transaminase; GGT, gamma-glutamyltransferase.