Table 3.
Predictive performance of different limited sampling strategies (LSS) for Bayesian estimators derived from the parametric (ITSIM) and nonparametric (Pmetrics) models on day 7 (D7) and week 6 (W6) post‐transplantation, for the 2 formulations. In each situation are presented the best LSS restricted to the first 4 h post‐dose and the best LSS overall (unrestricted)
| Model | Limited sampling strategy | Modelling software | Mean bias (%) | SD (%) | Range (%) | RMSE (%) | Number AUC estimates outside ±20% of the reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAC OD_D7 | 0, 1 h and 4 h | ITSIM | −5.60% | 18.25% | −42.43% to 20.36% | 18.19% | 3/10 |
| Pmetrics | −11.21% | 16.12% | −38.36 to 14.60% | 18.96% | 2/10 | ||
| 0, 1 h and 6 h | ITSIM | −4.52% | 7.80% | −19.75 to 9.39% | 8.67% | 0/10 | |
| Pmetrics | −6.68% | 16.08% | −41.48 to 14.27% | 16.71% | 1/10 | ||
| TAC OD_W6 | 0, 1 h and 4 h | ITSIM | 4.75% | 9.01% | −6.95 to 22.49% | 9.78% | 1/10 |
| Pmetrics | 1.14% | 12.18% | −9.46 to 31.13% | 11.61% | 1/10 | ||
| 0, 1 h and 6 h | ITSIM | −0.26% | 7.63% | −11.29 to 11.09% | 7.24% | 0/10 | |
| Pmetrics | −1.36% | 8.99% | −16.27 to 13.91% | 8.64% | 0/10 | ||
| TAC TD_D7 | 0, 1 h and 3 h | ITSIM | −2.42% | 8.45% | −23.09 to 8.53% | 8.38% | 1/10 |
| Pmetrics | 8.30% | 19.80% | −16.09 to 56.50% | 20.53% | 1/10 | ||
| 0, 2 h and 6 h | ITSIM | −2.30% | 6.03% | −10.15to 8.27% | 6.16% | 1/10 | |
| Pmetrics | −1.16% | 17.11% | −17.21 to 37.79% | 16.27% | 1/10 | ||
| TAC TD_W6 | 0, 1 h and 3 h | ITSIM | −0.65% | 7.36% | −7.96 to 14.59% | 7.02% | 0/10 |
| Pmetrics | 5.13% | 12.51% | −25.06 to 17.76% | 12.93% | 1/10 | ||
| 0, 2 h and 6 h | ITSIM | 2.36% | 11.46% | −12.40% to 29.39% | 11.12% | 1/10 | |
| Pmetrics | 3.83% | 11.48% | −10.86 to 24.90% | 12.25% | 1/10 |
AUC, area under the curve; D7, day 7; OD, Advagraf; RMSE, root mean squared prediction error; SD, standard deviation; TAC, tacrolimus; TD, Prograf; W6, week 6, TAC, tacrolimus.