Fig. 2.

Decision tree presenting overview of transition of a patient with NAFLD through the model. In the model, a patient with NAFLD and ≤ F2 fibrosis could remain well, progress to F3 fibrosis or die. A patient with F3 fibrosis could remain well, progress to compensated cirrhosis, develop HCC or die. Patients with compensated cirrhosis could remain stable, develop a complication of cirrhosis, undergo liver transplantation or die. The model differentiated early stage complications (non-bleeding varices detected by surveillance endoscopy, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage 0/A HCC and mild/moderate ‘other’ complication including ascites, jaundice and hepatic encephalopathy managed as outpatient), from late stage complications (bleeding varices, BCLC stage B-D HCC and severe ‘other’ CLD complications necessitating inpatient admission)