Table 7.
Projected clinical outcomes and costs of the scenarios projected over 1 year and 5 years
| Scenario 1- SC | Scenario 2 - FIB-4/ELF | Scenario 3 - FIB-4/ TE | Scenario 4 - SC + ELF | Scenario 5 - SC + TE | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | 5 years | 1 year | 5 years | 1 year | 5 years | 1 Year | 5 years | 1 year | 5 years | |
| Total number of cirrhotics entered into specialist services (out of all cirrhotics) | 1.03 (34%) | 5.28 (32%) | 2.19 (74%) | 10.97 (66%) | 2.23 (75%) | 11.17 (68%) | 2.34 (79%) | 11.75 (71%) | 2.43 (82%) | 12.23 (74%) |
| Total number of cirrhotics not known to specialist services (out of all cirrhotics) | 1.96 (66%) | 11.278 (68%) | 0.78 (26%) | 5.53 (34%) | 0.74 (25%) | 5.41 (32%) | 0.63 (21%) | 4.73 (29%) | 0.54 (18%) | 4.24 (26%) |
|
Early stage complication (stage 0/A HCC, non-bleeding varices, mild ascites etc) (% of all complications) Cost |
0.22 (42%) £3.0 K | 3.52 (39%) £31.1 K | 0.31 (57%) £4.1 K | 4.62 (52%) £41.2 K | 0.31 (58%) £4.1 K | 4.66 (52%) £41.5 K | 0.32 (60%) £4.3 K | 4.77 (54%) £42.6 K | 0.33 (61%) £4.3 K | 4.87 (55%) £43.4 K |
|
Late stage complication (stage B-D HCC, bleeding varices, severe ascites etc) (% of all complications) Cost |
0.32 (58%) £12.9 K | 5.44 (61%) £141 K | 0.23 (43%) £9.2 K | 4.3 (48%) £108 K | 0.23 (42%) 9.1 K | 4.26 (48%) £107 K | 0.22 (40%) £8.8 K | 4.14 (46%) £103 K | 0.21 (39%) £8.4 K | 4.05 (45%) £101 K |
|
Liver transplant Cost |
0.07 £5.9 K | 1.05 £89.5 K | 0.10 £7.9 K | 1.16 £98.9 K | 0.10 £8.0 K | 1.16 £99.3 K | 0.10 £8.2 K | 1.17100.2 K | 0.10 £8.3 K | 1.18 £101 K |
| Mortality (%) | 9.87 0.99% | 28.56 2.86% | 9.84 0.98% | 28.18 2.82% | 9.83 0.98% | 28.17 2.82% | 9.83 0.98% | 28.13 2.81% | 9.83 0.98% | 28.10 2.81% |
| Total cost/1000 NAFLD patients | 638 K | 1.1 M | 502 K | 946 K | 522 K | 971 K | 570 K | 1.0 M | 647 K | 1.1 M |
| Cost/advanced fibrotic detected | 25.7 K | 49.9 K | 9.0 K | 19.4 K | 9.1 K | 19.4 K | 9.5 K | 19.5 K | 10.4 K | 20.5 K |