Associations of plasma ceramide and sphingomyelin species with incident heart failure in each 5-year period of follow-up time. The figure shows hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals associated with an increase in plasma sphingolipid species of one standard deviation during 0–5 year follow-up period (blue), 5–10 year (red), 10–15 year (orange) and 15–20 year (yellow). The hazard ratios, obtained from Cox regression, were adjusted for age, sex, African American race, study site, diabetes, CHD, atrial fibrillation, systolic blood pressure, treated hypertension, smoking, BMI, physical activity, fasting glucose, LDL cholesterol; in addition, the analyses of Cer-20, Cer-22 and Cer-24 were adjusted for Cer-16; the analysis of Cer-16 was adjusted for Cer-22; the analyses of SM-20, SM-22 and SM-24 were adjusted for SM-16; and the analysis of SM-16 was adjusted for SM-22. Abbreviations: Cer-16, Cer-20, Cer-22, Cer-24 = ceramide with palmitic, arachidic, behenic, lignoceric acid respectively. SM-16, SM-20, SM-22, SM-24 = sphingomyelin with palmitic, arachidic, behenic, lignoceric acid respectively.