Table 5.
Relationship between climate and malaria incidence in Tak Province, 2012–2015
Variable | Total cases | P. falciparum | P. vivax | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
r | P | r | P | r | P | |
Rainfall (cm) | ||||||
Total, no lag | 0.33 | 0.026 | 0.27 | 0.066 | 0.36 | 0.015 |
Total, 1-month lag | 0.09 | 0.564 | 0.04 | 0.813 | 0.12 | 0.438 |
Total, 2-month lag | − 0.11 | 0.463 | − 0.13 | 0.384 | − 0.10 | 0.513 |
Total, 3-month lag | − 0.15 | 0.322 | − 0.14 | 0.355 | − 0.16 | 0.309 |
Relative humidity (%) | ||||||
Minimum | 0.19 | 0.195 | 0.13 | 0.382 | 0.23 | 0.115 |
Maximum | 0.28 | 0.056 | 0.22 | 0.136 | 0.31 | 0.033 |
Range (Max − Min) | − 0.03 | 0.832 | 0.01 | 0.962 | − 0.07 | 0.663 |
Average, no lag | 0.26 | 0.076 | 0.19 | 0.197 | 0.30 | 0.038 |
Average, 1-month lag | − 0.02 | 0.871 | − 0.06 | 0.677 | 0.00 | 0.981 |
Average, 2-month lag | − 0.35 | 0.019 | − 0.34 | 0.021 | − 0.34 | 0.020 |
Average, 3-month lag | − 0.47 | 0.001 | − 0.41 | 0.005 | − 0.51 | < 0.001 |
Temperature (°C) | ||||||
Minimum | 0.14 | 0.330 | 0.08 | 0.580 | 0.18 | 0.225 |
Maximum | 0.09 | 0.549 | 0.06 | 0.663 | 0.10 | 0.503 |
Range (Max − Min) | − 0.14 | 0.353 | − 0.06 | 0.705 | − 0.19 | 0.201 |
Median, no lag | 0.06 | 0.670 | 0.03 | 0.838 | 0.08 | 0.589 |
Median, 1-month lag | 0.38 | 0.008 | 0.33 | 0.024 | 0.41 | 0.004 |
Median, 2-month lag | 0.47 | 0.001 | 0.39 | 0.007 | 0.52 | < 0.001 |
Median, 3-month lag | 0.28 | 0.062 | 0.20 | 0.199 | 0.33 | 0.025 |
Average, no lag | 0.07 | 0.619 | 0.04 | 0.808 | 0.09 | 0.528 |
Average, 1-month lag | 0.38 | 0.008 | 0.33 | 0.024 | 0.41 | 0.004 |
Average, 2-month lag | 0.47 | 0.001 | 0.39 | 0.008 | 0.52 | < 0.001 |
Average, 3-month lag | 0.28 | 0.061 | 0.20 | 0.196 | 0.33 | 0.025 |
Climate measurements and parasite incidence were aggregated by month. r and P-values in italic text were those that were significant at alpha level of 0.05