Table 2.

Comparison of the predictability of state transitions in the adherence data between the logistic and Markov models: Base model development.

State Transition	Observed	Simulation 1	Simulation 2	Simulation 3	Simulation 4	Simulation 5
Markov model predictions
[11]	201119	200090	199090	200327	200385	200241
[10]	24431	24652	24885	24725	24678	24515
[01]	23986	24392	24617	24459	24407	24237
[00]	62747	63149	63691	62772	62813	63290
Logistic model predictions
[11]	201119	183053	183100	183203	183705	183190
[10]	24431	42070	42115	42099	42006	42043
[01]	23986	41809	41833	41831	41725	41735
[00]	62747	45351	45235	45150	44847	45315

Predicted transitions (counts) from both Markov and Logistic models. Four transitions ([11], [10], [01], [00]) of the predicted adherence data were compared against transitions in the observed data. A total of five simulations were carried out for both models to show the stochastic noise. Transitions predicted by the Markov model were closer to the observed values than the logistic model in all instances.