Table 3.

AIDS death rate (2018.75–2021.75) in people with previous or current viral load more than 1000 copies/ml while on antiretroviral therapy according to strategy for defining first-line failure of efavirenz-based regimen: one-way sensitivity analysis.

	Strategy for defining first-line failure of efavirenz-based regimen
	Two consecutive VL > 1000 copies/ml	Single VL > 1000 copies/ml	Percentage reduction between policies [mean (95% CI); median (90% range)] over setting scenarios
Base casea	3.1 (1.7–6.8)	2.5 (1.3–6.0)	18% (18, 18%)b 18% (6, 30%)b
Restricting to setting scenarios where: Of people on first-line ART with initial VL > 1000 6 months ago, % with VL < 1000 is >40% in 2018	3.2 (1.7–7.4)	2.7 (1.3–6.3)	17% (15, 19%) 17% (5, 29%)
Restricting to setting scenarios where HIV incidence in 2017 <0.5/100 person-years	3.2 (1.7–6.3)	2.5 (1.3–5.2)	19% (17, 21%) 19% (5, 32%)
Probability of each scheduled viral load measure being done = 0.20 (0.85 in base case)	3.9 (1.9–7.5)	3.1 (1.5–6.7)	17% (15, 19%) 16% (3, 31%)
Probability of switch to second-line (per 3 months) after first-line failure criteria fulfilled = 0.20 (0.85 in base case)	4.0 (1.9–7.6)	3.7 (1.5–7.0)	9% (8, 10%) 9% (–1, 18%)

ART, antiretroviral therapy; CI, confidence interval; VL, viral load.

^a25% of those identified as having failed first-line ART in the past year switched to second line. Overall rate of switch to second-line ART 1.9/100 person-years (0.7–5.0).

^b6 months after (re)starting, and excluding people who already started second line before baseline in 2018.75.