Table 2. ROCs and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) for prediction of diabetes at years 1, 3, and 5.
| Models | Year 1 | Year 3 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ROC AUC (95th% CI) | Model 1: Demographic factors a | 0.701 (0.699, 0.704) |
0.703 (0.701, 0.705) |
0.702 (0.700, 0.704) |
| Model 2: Demographic + CVD factors b | 0.708 (0.705, 0.710) |
0.705 (0.703, 0.707) |
0.703 (0.701, 0.705) |
|
| Model 3: RPG (maximum) | 0.856 (0.855, 0.858) |
0.822 (0.820, 0.823) |
0.791 (0.790, 0.793) |
|
| Model 4: RPG (average) | 0.877 (0.876, 0.879) |
0.836 (0.834, 0.837) |
0.799 (0.798, 0.801) |
|
| Model 5: RPG (≥2 measures at/above threshold) | 0.878 (0.876, 0.880) |
0.839 (0.837, 0.840) |
0.803 (0.802, 0.805) |
|
| Model 6: Demographic + CVD + RPG (maximum) | 0.882 (0.881, 0.884) |
0.855 (0.854, 0.857) |
0.832 (0.831, 0.833) |
|
| Model 7: Demographic + CVD + RPG (average) | 0.899 (0.898, 0.901) |
0.869 (0.868, 0.871) |
0.843 (0.842, 0.845) |
|
| Model 8: Demographic + CVD + RPG (≥2 at/above threshold) | 0.900 (0.899, 0.902) |
0.872 (0.870, 0.873) |
0.847 (0.846, 0.848) |
|
| IDI c | Model 1: Demographic factors a | reference | reference | reference |
| Model 2: Demographic + CVD factors b | 0.0008 | 0.0011 | 0.0014 | |
| Model 3: Demographic + CVD + RPG (≥2 at/above threshold) | 0.1872 | 0.2456 | 0.2615 |
n = 941,561, including only subjects with all CVD risk factors
a Demographic factors (age, sex, BMI, race, ethnicity)
b CVD factors (systolic blood pressure, non-HDL-cholesterol, smoking)
c p<0.0001 for all IDI analyses comparing prediction performances using model 1 as reference within each year