TABLE 3.

Impact of ANCS and Other WHO-Recommended Interventions^a to Prevent Preterm Mortality From RDS, IVH, and NEC, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015

Scenario No.	Scenario	Incremental Change Modelb		Universal Coverage Modelc
		Preterm Deaths, No.d	Preterm Deaths Prevented Compared With Current Level of Care, No. (%)	Preterm Deaths, No.	Preterm Deaths Prevented Compared With Current Level of Care, No. (%)
1	Current levels of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment	303,400	N/A	303,400	N/A
Improved WHO single interventions
2	Increased surfactant in hospital settings for RDS	303,300	100 (<0.1)	303,100	300 (0.1)
3	Increased ANCS in hospital settings for RDS, IVH, and NEC	302,300	1,100 (0.4)	298,400	5,000 (1.7)
4	Increased oxygen/CPAP in hospital and clinical settings for RDS	295,300	8,100 (2.7)	261,100	42,300 (13.9)
Improved diagnosis of preterm labor and transfer with current care
5	Increased diagnosis of preterm labor birth, with current levels of care for RDS, IVH, and NEC	302,400	1,000 (0.3)	299,900	3,500 (1.2)
6	Increased diagnosis of imminent preterm birth and transfer to hospitals, with current levels of care for RDS, IVH, and NEC	301,300	2,100 (0.7)	287,100	16,300 (5.4)
Improved diagnosis and transfer with WHO single interventions
7	Increased diagnosis of respiratory distress, transfer, and surfactant (hospitals only) for RDS	299,900	3,500 (1.2)	282,800	20,600 (6.8)
8	Increased diagnosis of imminent preterm birth, transfer to hospitals, and ANCS (hospitals only) for RDS, IVH, and NEC	298,600	4,800 (1.6)	236,700	66,700 (22.0)
9	Increased diagnosis of respiratory distress, transfer, and oxygen/CPAP for preterm RDS	287,400	16,000 (5.3)	176,100	127,300 (42.0)
Improved diagnosis and transfer with WHO packaged interventions
10	Improved diagnosis of imminent preterm birth, transfer to hospitals, ANCS (hospitals only), and treatment with surfactants (hospitals only) and oxygen/CPAP for RDS, IVH, and NEC	289,700	13,700 (4.5)	191,300	112,100 (37.0)
11	Increased diagnosis of respiratory distress, transfer to hospitals, and treatment, including surfactants (hospitals only) and oxygen/CPAP for RDS	286,900	16,500 (5.4)	155,700	147,711 (48.7)
12	Hospital delivery for all preterm birth, with ANCS (hospitals only), improved diagnosis and treatment of respiratory distress, including surfactants (hospitals only) and CPAP for RDS, IVH, and NEC	223,300	80,100 (26.4)	112,800	190,600(62.8)

Abbreviations: ANCS, antenatal corticosteroids; CPAP, continuous positive airway pressure; IVH, intraventricular hemorrhage; NEC, necrotizing enterocolitis; RDS, respiratory distress syndrome; WHO, World Health Organization.

^aAssumptions regarding baseline penetration and utilization of interventions including ANCS, surfactant, and CPAP as shown in Table 1. Assumptions regarding diagnostics and transfers found in Table 2.

^bThe incremental change model assumes 20% increase from baseline penetration and utilization.

^cThe universal coverage model assumes 98% penetration and utilization of interventions.

^dAll estimates rounded to nearest 100.