TABLE 4.

Impact of WHO-Recommended Interventions^a to Prevent Preterm Mortality From Sepsis, Birth Asphyxia, and Low Birth Weight, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015

Scenario No.	Scenario	Incremental Change Modelb		Universal Coverage Modelc
		Preterm Deaths, No.d	Preterm Deaths Prevented Compared With Current Level of Care, No. (%)	Preterm Deaths, No.	Preterm Deaths Prevented Compared With Current Level of Care, No. (%)
1	Current levels of prevention, diagnosis, and treatment	198,400	N/A	198,400	N/A
Improved WHO single interventions
2	Oxygen/CPAP for birth asphyxia in clinics and hospitals	198,000	400 (0.2)	196,800	1,700 (0.9)
3	PPV for birth asphyxia in all settings	197,200	1,200 (0.6)	195,100	4,200 (2.1)
4	Drying and stimulation for birth asphyxia in all settings	196,486	1,900 (1.0)	195,400	3,000 (1.5)
5	Thermal care for LBW, including KMC in all settings and warmers in hospital settings	196,000	2,500 (1.3)	189,400	9,100 (4.6)
6	Antibiotics for suspected neonatal sepsis in all settings	192,100	6,300 (3.2)	180,300	18,200 (9.1)
7	Breastfeeding for sepsis and LBW in all settings	189,300	9,100 (4.6)	168,200	30,200 (15.2)
8	Chlorhexidine for sepsis in home settings and dry cord care in clinical settings	190,800	7,600 (3.8)	159,900	38,500 (19.4)
Improved diagnosis and transfer with current care
9	Diagnosis of birth asphyxia and need for postresuscitation care, with current levels of care	197,200	1,300 (0.7)	196,500	1,900 (1.0)
10	Diagnosis of birth asphyxia and need for postresuscitation care and improved transfer to hospitals, with current levels of care	197,000	1,400 (0.7)	196,200	2,200 (1.1)
11	Diagnosis of sepsis, with current levels of care	194,700	3,700 (1.9)	194,300	4,200 (2.1)
12	Diagnosis of sepsis and transfer to hospitals, with current levels of care	187,400	11,000 (5.5)	184,100	14,300 (7.2)
Improved diagnosis and transfer with WHO single treatment interventions
13	Diagnosis of birth asphyxia and need for postresuscitation care, transfer, and oxygen/CPAP	196,300	2,100 (1.1)	191,700	6,800 (3.4)
14	Diagnosis of birth asphyxia and need for postresuscitation care, transfer, and positive pressure ventilation	195,500	2,900 (1.5)	189,800	8,600 (4.3)
15	Diagnosis of sepsis, transfer, and antibiotics for suspected neonatal sepsis	180,800	17,600 (8.9)	169,800	28,600 (14.3)
Improved diagnosis and transfer with WHO-packaged interventions
16	Drying and stimulation, diagnosis of birth asphyxia and need for postresuscitation care, transfer to hospitals, and treatment, including PPV and oxygen/CPAP	188,057	10,400 (5.2)	172,200	26,200 (13.2)
17	Cord care and breastfeeding, diagnosis of sepsis, transfer, and antibiotics for suspected neonatal sepsis	169,200	29,200 (14.7)	139,400	59,100 (29.8)
18	Packaged interventions 16 and 17, with increased thermal care and breastfeeding for LBW	159,300	39,100 (19.7)	104,000	94,400 (47.6)

Abbreviations: CPAP, continuous positive airway pressure; KMC, kangaroo mother care; LBW, low birth weight; PPV, positive pressure ventilation; WHO, World Health Organization.

^aAssumptions regarding baseline penetration and utilization of interventions including ANCS, surfactant, and CPAP as shown in Table 1. Assumptions regarding diagnostics and transfers found in Table 2.

^bThe incremental change model assumes 20% increase from baseline penetration and utilization.

^cThe universal coverage model assumes 98% penetration and utilization of interventions.

^dAll estimates rounded to nearest 100.