TABLE 2. Projected impact of increasing excise tax by 50% per cigarette pack (change in retail price per pack, sales volume, excise revenue, and total tax revenue): central estimates by subregion/region, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), 2014.
Variable |
The Caribbean |
Central America |
South America |
LAC region |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Excise tax (US$/pack) |
|
|||
2014 baseline |
1.4 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
Projection |
2.2 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
% change |
50 |
50 |
50 |
50 |
Retail price (US$/pack) |
|
|||
2014 baseline |
4.4 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
3.1 |
Projection |
5.3 |
4.0 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
% change |
19 |
30 |
27 |
28 |
Cigarette sales (millions of packs) |
|
|||
2014 baseline |
208 |
2 179 |
8 219 |
10 606 |
Projection |
196 |
2 041 |
7 645 |
9 882 |
Change |
-12 |
-138 |
-574 |
-723 |
% Change |
-6 |
-6 |
-7 |
-7 |
Excise tax revenue (US$ millions) |
|
|||
2014 baseline |
300 |
3 353 |
12 752 |
16 405 |
Projection |
423 |
4 771 |
17 532 |
22 726 |
Change |
122 |
1 418 |
4 780 |
6 321 |
% change |
41 |
42 |
37 |
39 |
Total tax revenue (US$ millions) |
|
|||
2014 baseline |
428 |
4 268 |
17 385 |
22 092 |
Projection |
577 |
5 890 |
22 675 |
29 142 |
Change |
138 |
1 622 |
5 290 |
7 050 |
% change |
32 |
38 |
30 |
32 |
Source:Author estimates.