Figure 1.

Risk of incident cardiovascular disease associated with past, current, and usual systolic blood pressure (SBP) at the landmark age of 50 years. Estimates were obtained after Monte‐Carlo cross‐validation involving 50 random resampling (represented by each dot) without replacement using data from the derivation cohort; hazard ratios (95% credible intervals) were estimated per 20–mm Hg higher current, usual, or mean of past SBP or per 5–mm Hg higher past SBP variability. Usual SBP refers to current SBP corrected for regression dilution using published correction factor (SBP‐pRD=0.70) or correction factor calculated from historical blood pressure recording (SBP‐hRD=0.50). All models were also adjusted for calendar year of study entry, sex, and other baseline characteristics (smoking, deprivation index, diabetes mellitus, body mass index, total cholesterol, low‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol). Total number of incident cardiovascular disease=3222.