Table 4. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses for 30-day mortality.
| Univariable a | Adjusted b | Multivariable c | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction variables | n missing | Value | n (%) of event | OR (95% CI)30-d mortality | p -Value | Area under ROC-curve (95% CI) | OR (95% CI)30-d mortality | p -Value | OR (95% CI)30-d mortality | p -Value |
| Gender | 0 | Male | 138 (17.7%) | |||||||
| Female | 65 (17.4) | 0.98 (0.71–1.36) | 0.92 | 0.50 (0.47–0.54) | 0.90 (0.65–1.25) | 0.53 | 0.92 (0.62–1.38) | 0.69 | ||
| Age (OR per 5 units) | 0 | 14.0–< 58.0 | 54 (14.4) | |||||||
| 58.0–< 68.0 | 65 (17.0) | |||||||||
| 68.0–86.0 | 84 (21.2) | 1.09 (1.02–1.16) | 0.011 | 0.57 (0.52–0.61) | 1.09 (1.02–1.16) | 0.011 | 1.06 (0.98–1.15) | 0.15 | ||
| Age > 70 y | 0 | No | 141 (16.3) | |||||||
| Yes | 62 (21.3) | 1.39 (0.99–1.94) | 0.055 | 0.53 (0.50–0.57) | 1.03 (0.65–1.64) | 0.88 | ||||
| BMI (OR per 5 units) | 198 | 11.39–< 24.49 | 39 (12.3) | |||||||
| 24.49–< 27.80 | 49 (15.4) | |||||||||
| 27.80–53.88 | 52 (16.2) | 1.18 (0.99–1.41) | 0.069 | 0.55 (0.50–0.60) | 1.22 (1.02–1.47) | 0.031 | ||||
| Smoking | 306 | No | 70 (14.7) | |||||||
| Yes | 55 (14.8) | 1.01 (0.69–1.48) | 0.95 | 0.50 (0.45–0.55) | 1.03 (0.70–1.51) | 0.89 | ||||
| Hypertension | 2 | No | 82 (14.7) | |||||||
| Yes | 120 (20.1) | 1.46 (1.07–1.98) | 0.017 | 0.55 (0.51–0.58) | 1.39 (1.02–1.89) | 0.040 | 1.22 (0.83–1.78) | 0.31 | ||
| Hypercholesterolemia | 8 | No | 171 (16.9) | |||||||
| Yes | 28 (20.7) | 1.29 (0.82–2.01) | 0.27 | 0.51 (0.49–0.54) | 1.20 (0.76–1.88) | 0.44 | ||||
| Diabetes | 5 | No | 191 (17.0) | |||||||
| Yes | 11 (42.3) | 3.58 (1.62–7.91) | 0.0016 | 0.52 (0.50–0.54) | 3.34 (1.51–7.41) | 0.0030 | 3.57 (1.15–11.05) | 0.027 | ||
| COPD | 4 | No | 181 (16.7) | |||||||
| Yes | 21 (30.4) | 2.18 (1.27–3.72) | 0.0046 | 0.53 (0.50–0.55) | 2.02 (1.18–3.48) | 0.011 | 1.99 (1.02–3.85) | 0.043 | ||
| HxStroke | 3 | No | 191 (17.3) | |||||||
| Yes | 11 (23.4) | 1.46 (0.73–2.92) | 0.28 | 0.51 (0.49–0.53) | 1.36 (0.68–2.74) | 0.38 | ||||
| HxTIA | 4 | No | 199 (17.6) | |||||||
| Yes | 3 (17.6) | 1.01 (0.29–3.53) | 0.99 | 0.50 (0.49–0.51) | 0.94 (0.27–3.32) | 0.93 | ||||
| HxCKD | 4 | No | 197 (17.4) | |||||||
| Yes | 5 (23.8) | 1.48 (0.54–4.08) | 0.45 | 0.50 (0.49–0.52) | 1.59 (0.57–4.42) | 0.37 | ||||
| HxAfib | 649 | No | 68 (14.2) | |||||||
| Yes | 7 (25.9) | 2.11 (0.86–5.18) | 0.10 | 0.52 (0.49–0.56) | 1.98 (0.80–4.93) | 0.14 | ||||
| Marfan syndrome | 4 | No | 197 (17.9) | |||||||
| Yes | 5 (10.2) | 0.52 (0.20–1.33) | 0.17 | 0.51 (0.50–0.52) | 0.65 (0.25–1.68) | 0.37 | ||||
| Preoperative creatinine (µmol/L) (OR per 10 units) | 195 | 6.2–< 79.0 | 37 (11.5) | |||||||
| 79.0–< 102.0 | 41 (12.9) | |||||||||
| 102.0–1000.0 | 76 (24.0) | 1.07 (1.03–1.11) | 0.0007 | 0.61 (0.56–0.66) | 1.07 (1.03–1.11) | 0.0007 | ||||
| Euroscore II (OR per 5 units) | 851 | 0.62–< 4.10 | 8 (7.9) | |||||||
| 4.10–< 11.10 | 19 (18.4) | |||||||||
| 11.10–65.44 | 30 (30.3) | 1.26 (1.11–1.43) | 0.0003 | 0.67 (0.60–0.75) | 1.22 (1.07–1.40) | 0.0025 | ||||
| LVEF TEE (%) (OR per 5 units) | 752 | 0.0–< 50.0 | 26 (19.4) | |||||||
| 50.0–< 55.0 | 12 (8.9) | |||||||||
| 55.0–74.0 | 13 (9.8) | 0.78 (0.67–0.91) | 0.0011 | 0.62 (0.52–0.71) | 0.78 (0.67–0.91) | 0.0011 | ||||
| Cardiac arrest | 4 | No | 180 (16.5) | |||||||
| Yes | 22 (38.6) | 3.19 (1.83–5.56) | < 0.0001 | 0.54 (0.51–0.56) | 3.18 (1.82–5.55) | < 0.0001 | 1.64 (0.82–3.30) | 0.16 | ||
| Hypotensive shock at presentation | 84 | No | 126 (15.4) | |||||||
| Yes | 65 (25.8) | 1.91 (1.36–2.68) | 0.0002 | 0.56 (0.53–0.60) | 1.85 (1.32–2.61) | 0.0004 | 0.76 (0.45–1.28) | 0.30 | ||
| Pericardial tamponade | 26 | No | 145 (15.5) | |||||||
| Yes | 55 (28.9) | 2.23 (1.55–3.19) | < 0.0001 | 0.56 (0.53–0.60) | 2.15 (1.50–3.09) | < 0.0001 | 1.17 (0.73–1.86) | 0.52 | ||
| DeBakey class | 8 | I | 153 (18.1) | |||||||
| II | 44 (14.5) | 0.77 (0.53–1.10) | 0.15 | 0.52 (0.49–0.56) | 0.71 (0.49–1.03) | 0.074 | ||||
| Penn class | 10 | Penn class A vs. Penn class A | 77 (10.9) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | ||||
| Penn class B vs. Penn class A | 52 (21.2) | 2.20 (1.49–3.24) | < 0.0001 | 2.24 (1.52–3.31) | < 0.0001 | 2.31 (1.47–3.65) | 0.0003 | |||
| Penn class C vs. Penn class A | 43 (34.1) | 4.23 (2.73–6.55) | < 0.0001 | 4.18 (2.69–6.49) | < 0.0001 | 4.35 (2.38–7.97) | < 0.0001 | |||
| Penn class B and C vs. Penn class A | 29 (42.6) | 6.06 (3.55–10.36) | < 0.0001 | 0.66 (0.62–0.70) | 6.37 (3.71–10.94) | < 0.0001 | 6.61 (3.24–13.52) | < 0.0001 | ||
| CPB time (OR per 30 units) | 96 | 0–< 168 | 43 (12.1) | |||||||
| 168–< 219 | 43 (12.4) | |||||||||
| 219–715 | 90 (25.2) | 1.23 (1.16–1.30) | < 0.0001 | 0.64 (0.59–0.69) | 1.23 (1.16–1.30) | < 0.0001 | 1.22 (1.15–1.30) | < 0.0001 | ||
| Cross-clamp time (OR per 10 units) | 126 | 0–< 76 | 45 (13.0) | |||||||
| 76–< 116 | 42 (12.4) | |||||||||
| 116–364 | 83 (24.3) | 1.07 (1.04–1.10) | < 0.0001 | 0.59 (0.54–0.65) | 1.07 (1.05–1.10) | < 0.0001 | ||||
Abbreviations: Afib, atrial fibrillation; BMI, body mass index; CI, confidence interval; CKD, chronic kidney disease; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; CPB, cardiopulmonary bypass; Hx, history of; LVEF, left ventricular ejection fraction; OR, odds ratio; ROC, receiver operating characteristic; TEE, transthoracic echocardiogram; TIA, transient ischemic attack.
Note: p -Values, OR, and area under ROC-curve are based on original values and not on stratified groups. OR is the ratio for the odds for an increase of the predictor of one unit. Area under ROC-curve with 95% CI for multivariable model is equal to 0.75 (0.71–0.79).
a
All tests were performed with univariable logistic regression.
b
Adjusting for age using logistic regression.
c
Multivariable logistic regression model including sex, age, hypertension, diabetes, COPD, cardiac arrest, hypotensive shock at presentation, pericardial tamponade, Penn class, and CPB time.