Fig. 6.

Differences between actual and critical lags. a–f shows differences between actual and critical lags calculated for a range of β (linear selection differentials, absolute values) and ω² (width of the fitness function) for: a, d extreme values of parameters B (maximal offspring production), b, e extreme values of h² (heritability) and c, f extreme values of N_e (effective population size), while keeping other parameters at baseline (Supplementary Table 4). g Differences between actual and critical lags for species in our dataset (violin plots depict distributions resulting from drawing 1000 ω² values and different studies per species). Contour lines show isoclines for the differences (black solid: extinction risk; black dashed: no extinction risk; grey: threshold). Histograms represent distributions of β and ω² used to produce g). Red-shaded area in g demonstrates that populations are at risk (i.e. population growth rate < 1)