Table 2:
Bayesian Space-Time Models of Relationship between Medical Marijuana Dispensaries and Crime (n = 16,354)
| Model 1: Violent Crime | Model 2: Property Crime | Model 3: Marijuana-Specific Crime | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Variable Name | Relative Rate | 95% Credible Interval |
Relative Rate | 95% Credible Interval |
Relative Rate | 95% Credible Interval |
| Intercept | 1.851 | (0.556, 6.404) | 1.365 | (0.446, 2.429) | 0.449 | (0.023, 14.531) |
| Marijuana Outlets per square mile | 1.007 | (0.999, 1.015) | 1.001 | (0.997, 1.006) | 1.080 | (1.057, 1.103)* |
| Spatially-lagged Marijuana Outlets per square mile | 1.001 | (0.979, 1.024) | 1.021 | (1.010, 1.032)* | 1.078 | (1.022, 1.137)* |
| Bars & Pubs per square mile | 1.010 | (1.000, 1.019)* | 1.004 | (0.998, 1.011) | 1.008 | (0.986, 1.031) |
| Restaurants (that serve alcohol) per square mile | 0.999 | (0.996, 1.002) | 0.999 | (0.997, 1.001) | 0.995 | (0.988, 1.003) |
| Off-Premise Alcohol Outlets per square mile | 1.013 | (1.005, 1.022)* | 1.010 | (1.004, 1.017)* | 1.014 | (0.992, 1.036) |
| Population Density (1000s per square mile) | 0.927 | (0.910, 0.944)* | 0.952 | (0.941, 0.963)* | 0.868 | (0.827, 0.908)* |
| % One-Person Household | 0.996 | (0.985, 1.007) | 1.001 | (0.995, 1.010) | 1.005 | (0.971, 1.035) |
| Male / Female Ratio (x 100) | 1.003 | (0.998, 1.009) | 1.002 | (0.998, 1.006) | 1.008 | (0.996, 1.019) |
| HH Income ($1000s in 2015) | 0.918 | (0.882, 0.959)* | 0.954 | (0.930, 0.977)* | 0.841 | (0.750, 0.938)* |
| % Families in poverty | 1.001 | (0.995, 1.007) | 0.999 | (0.994, 1.003) | 1.015 | (1.002, 1.030)* |
| % Unemployment | 1.003 | (0.995, 1.011) | 1.003 | (1.000, 1.007) | 1.002 | (0.983, 1.021) |
| % Owned housing | 0.987 | (0.981, 0.993)* | 0.992 | (0.988, 0.996)* | 0.996 | (0.982, 1.011) |
| % Vacant housing | 1.010 | (1.002, 1.018)* | 1.012 | (1.008, 1.017)* | 0.990 | (0.969, 1.012) |
| % Asian | 1.016 | (0.992, 1.041) | 0.997 | (0.979, 1.016) | 0.978 | (0.927, 1.030) |
| % Black | 1.009 | (0.997, 1.020) | 0.994 | (0.987, 1.002) | 0.990 | (0.966, 1.012) |
| % Hispanic | 1.005 | (0.997, 1.012) | 0.993 | (0.988, 0.998)* | 1.003 | (0.990, 1.019) |
| % Age 15-24 | 0.951 | (0.912, 0.992)* | 0.999 | (0.979, 1.020) | 1.016 | (0.909, 1.122) |
| % Zoned Commercial | 1.030 | (1.018, 1.043)* | 1.031 | (1.023, 1.041)* | 1.010 | (0.980, 1.039) |
| Any Highway Ramps | 1.204 | (0.978, 1.482) | 1.345 | (1.154, 1.555)* | 1.465 | (0.947, 2.302) |
| Linear time trend | 1.010 | (1.004, 1.016)* | 1.007 | (1.002, 1.012)* | 1.004 | (0.994, 1.014) |
| SD (correlated hetereogeneity/CAR random effect) | 1.013 | (0.728, 1.388) | 0.520 | (0.364, 0.693) | 0.803 | (0.083, 1.605) |
| SD (uncorrelated heterogeneity/non-spatial random effect) | 0.458 | (0.232, 0.581) | 0.473 | (0.417, 0.525) | 1.043 | (0.742, 1.292) |
| SD (month random effect) | 0.141 | (0.103, 0.195) | 0.131 | (0.103, 0.174) | 0.059 | (0.022, 0.152) |
| Proportion Spatial | 0.830 | (0.627, 0.972) | 0.546 | (0.341, 0.725) | 0.369 | (0.005, 0.804) |
*
Credible interval does not include 1;
**
To be compared with an expected value of 0.0000.