Table 1. Hypothetical epidemiological scenarios for evaluating RITA performance in HIV incidence surveillance.
| Parameter | Scenario A South Africa-like |
Scenario B Kenya-like |
Scenario C Concentrated |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIV-1 Subtype distribution: | |||
| Subtype A | 0% | 70% | 0% |
| Subtype B | 0% | 0% | 100% |
| Subtype C | 100% | 5% | 0% |
| Subtype D | 0% | 25% | 0% |
| Prevalence: PE (SE) | 18.9% (1.12%) | 5.4% (0.36%) | 15.0% (1.00%) |
| Incidence: PE (SE) cases/100PY | 0.990 (0.0004) | 0.146 (0.039) | 0.5 (0.050) |
| ART coverage: PE (SE) | 56% (5.6%) | 64% (6.4%) | 90% (9.0%) |
| Viral suppression rate: PE (SE) | 82% (8.2%) | 81% (8.1%) | 90% (9.0%) |
| Surevey sample size: | 35,000 | 14,000 | 5,000 |
PE: Point estimate. SE: Standard error. PY: Person-years.