Table 4.
Mortality outcomes by GOLD 2011, GOLD 2017 ABCD and GOLD 2017 2A–4D classifications. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses with post hoc receiver operating curve estimations (8-year follow-up of the GenKOLS study)
| All-cause mortality | Respiratory mortality | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOLD | N total | N dead | Unadjusted OR (95% CI) | Adjusted OR** (95% CI) |
N dead | Unadjusted OR (95% CI) | Adjusted OR** (95% CI) |
| 2011 Group A | 193 | 27 | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) | 4 | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) |
| 2011 Group B | 267 | 64 | 1.9 (1.2–3.2) | 1.3 (0.7–2.3) | 13 | 2.4 (0.8–7.5) | 1.9 (0.6–6.0) |
| 2011 Group C | 57 | 9 | 1.2 (0.5–2.6) | 0.8 (0.3–2.1) | 2 | 1.7 (0.3–9.6) | 1.2 (0.2–6.8) |
| 2011 Group D | 395 | 187 | 5.5 (3.5–8.7) | 4.0 (2.4–6.7) | 90 | 13.9 (5.0–38.6) | 9.6 (3.4–27.1) |
| AUC (95% CI) | 0.68 (0.64–0.71) | 0.81 (0.77–0.84) | 0.73 (0.69–0.76) | 0.82 (0.78–0.86) | |||
| 2017 Group A | 225 | 34 | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) | 6 | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) |
| 2017 Group B | 476 | 159 | 2.8 (1.9–4.3) | 2.1 (1.3–3.4) | 62 | 5.5 (2.3–12.8) | 4.3 (1.8–10.3) |
| 2017 Group C | 25 | 2 | 0.5 (0.1–2.2) | 0.4 (0.1–2.0) | 0 | * | * |
| 2017 Group D | 186 | 92 | 5.5 (3.4–8.7) | 4.6 (2.7–7.8) | 41 | 10.3 (4.3–24.9) | 7.9 (3.2–19.7) |
| AUC (95% CI) | 0.65 (0.62–0.68)a | 0.80 (0.77–0.83) | 0.66 (0.62–0.70)b | 0.79 (0.74–0.83)a | |||
| 2017 Group 2A | 188 | 26 | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) | 4 | 1 (ref) | 1 (ref) |
| 2017 Group 2B | 244 | 53 | 1.7 (1.0–2.9) | 1.2 (0.7–2.1) | 10 | 2.0 (0.6–6.4) | 1.5 (0.4–4.9) |
| 2017 Group 2C | 15 | 1 | * | * | 0 | * | * |
| 2017 Group 2D | 63 | 25 | 4.1 (2.1–7.9) | 2.6 (1.2–5.6) | 9 | 7.7 (2.3–25.9) | 4.7 (1.3–17.1) |
| 2017 Group 3A | 26 | 5 | 1.5 (0.5–4.3) | 0.8 (0.3–2.6) | 0 | * | * |
| 2017 Group 3B | 163 | 64 | 4.0 (2.4–6.8) | 2.5 (1.4–4.4) | 26 | 8.7 (3.0–25.6) | 5.4 (1.8–16.3) |
| 2017 Group 3C | 7 | 0 | * | * | 0 | * | * |
| 2017 Group 3D | 76 | 35 | 5.3 (2.9–9.8) | 3.8 (1.9–7.6) | 14 | 10.4 (3.3–32.7) | 7.3 (2.2–24.2) |
| 2017 Group 4A | 11 | 3 | 2.3 (0.6–9.4) | 2.1 (0.5–9.7) | 2 | * | * |
| 2017 Group 4B | 69 | 42 | 9.7 (5.1–18.3) | 8.1 (4.0–16.6) | 26 | 27.8 (9.2–83.9) | 19.8 (6.3–61.8) |
| 2017 Group 4C | 3 | 1 | * | * | 0 | * | * |
| 2017 Group 4D | 47 | 32 | 13.3 (6.3–27.9) | 14.0 (6.0–32.6) | 18 | 28.6 (9.0–90.4) | 21.5 (6.4–71.9) |
| AUC (95% CI) | 0.71 (0.67–0.74)b,c | 0.83 (0.79–0.85)a,c | 0.77 (0.73–0.82)b,c | 0.84 (0.80–0.87)a,c | |||
Notes: *Odds ratio not reported for groups with three or fewer outcomes due to uncertain estimates. **Adjusted for gender, age, smoking, body mass index, comorbidities (diabetes, angina/heart attack, high blood pressure). ap<0.05 and bp<0.001 as compared with GOLD 2011 ABCD. cp<0.001 as compared with GOLD 2017 ABCD.
Abbreviations: AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval; OR, odds ratio.