Table 2.

Accuracy of test methods in determining averted cases in simulated data*.

Method †	No. of cases without vaccination	Averted cases	Proportion averted, %	Errors: % difference in averted cases compared with reference model
Reference model	120,000	28,768	24.0	NA
Test method 1	117,408	26,176	22.3	−9.01
Test method 2	120,043	28,811	24.0	0.15
Test method 3	120,014	28,782	24.0	0.05
Test method 4	121,064	29,832	24.6	3.70
Test method 5	122,386	31,153	25.5	8.29
Test method 6	123,957	32,725	26.4	13.76
Test method 7	119,598	28,365	23.7	−1.40
* Simulated input data characteristics
Beginning population			1,000,000
Vaccinated, % of population			55%
Vaccination month (mean, ±standard deviation)			3.6 ± 1.5
Vaccine effectiveness, %			48%
No. of cases with vaccination			91,232
Cases month (mean ± standard deviation)			6.5 ± 1.2
Vaccination timing, %			90%

Notes: months counted from August, month 3 indicates October and month 6 indicates January; vaccination timing indicates proportion of vaccine doses given before cases occurred (see Methods).

^†See Methods and Supplemental Table 2 for details of test methods. The current method is method 1.