Table 3.

Effect of varying synthetic data parameters on accuracy of test methods 1–3 in estimating averted cases^*

Factor(s) varied†	Vaccination timing, %‡	Vaccine effectiveness, %	Vaccine coverage, %	Infection risk without vaccination, %	Infection risk with vaccination, %	Immune lag, days§	True averted cases per reference model		Errors: % difference in averted cases compared with reference model
							No. of averted cases	Averted %	Method 1 (current)	Method 2	Method 3
Vaccination timing‡
	5	48	55	12	11.8	14	1630	1.4	89.8	6.2	6.0
	25	48	55	12	11.2	14	8346	7.0	32.4	3.5	3.2
	50	48	55	12	10.3	14	16,616	13.8	10.8	1.9	1.5
	75	48	55	12	9.6	14	24,336	20.3	−2.5	0.7	0.5
	90	48	55	12	9.1	14	28,768	24.0	−9.0	0.2	0.0
	98	48	55	12	8.9	14	31,159	26.0	−12.0	0.0	0.0
Vaccine effectiveness
	90	10	55	12	11.4	14	5993	5.0	0.8	0.0	0.0
	90	20	55	12	10.8	14	11,986	10.0	−1.5	0.1	0.0
	90	30	55	12	10.2	14	17,980	15.0	−4.0	0.1	0.0
	90	50	55	12	9.0	14	29,966	25.0	−9.6	0.2	0.1
	90	60	55	12	8.4	14	35,959	30.0	−12.8	0.2	0.1
	90	70	55	12	7.8	14	42,075	35.1	−16.4	0.2	0.1
Vaccine coverage
	90	48	10	12	11.5	14	5231	4.4	1.1	0.0	0.0
	90	48	20	12	11.0	14	10,461	8.7	−0.9	0.1	0.0
	90	48	30	12	10.4	14	15,692	13.1	−3.0	0.1	0.0
	90	48	50	12	9.4	14	26,152	21.8	−7.7	0.1	0.0
	90	48	70	12	8.3	14	36,613	30.5	−13.2	0.2	0.0
	89	48	80	12	7.8	14	41,843	34.9	−16.2	0.3	0.0
Infection risk
	90	48	55	2	1.5	14	4794	24.0	−9.0	−0.5	−0.5
	90	48	55	6	4.6	14	14,383	24.0	−9.0	−0.2	−0.3
	90	48	55	12	9.1	14	28,768	24.0	−9.0	0.2	0.0
	90	48	55	25	19.0	14	59,943	24.0	−9.0	1.1	0.8
	90	48	55	40	30.4	14	95,929	24.0	−9.1	2.2	1.8
	90	48	55	50	38.0	14	119,930	24.0	−9.1	3.1	2.6
Multiple, low averted
	5	10	10	2	2.0	14	10	0.1	88.4	2.9	2.9
	50	10	10	2	2.0	14	101	0.5	18.2	−0.4	−0.4
	98	10	10	2	2.0	14	196	1.0	0.3	−0.2	−0.2
Multiple, high averted
	5	70	80	50	48.6	14	14,470	2.9	90.5	25.7	23.6
	50	70	80	50	34.5	14	154,568	30.9	−2.8	21.8	13.8
	98	70	80	50	22.5	14	275,427	55.1	−34.2	1.2	0.9
Immune lag§
	90	48	55	12	9.0	1	29,763	24.8	−12.9	−4.1	−4.2
	90	48	55	12	9.1	7	29,343	24.5	−11.3	−2.4	−2.5
	90	48	55	12	9.1	14	28,768	24.0	−9.0	0.2	0.0
	90	48	55	12	9.2	21	28,094	23.4	−6.2	3.2	3.1
	90	48	55	12	9.3	28	27,315	22.8	−2.7	7.0	6.9

^*Method 1 is currently used; methods 2 and 3 are the best performing test methods (see text Methods section and Supplemental Table 2).

^†Factors varied are indicated with bold type.

^‡Proportion of vaccinations given before cases, see Methods section.

^§Days from vaccine receipt to immune protection.