Table 1. The estimated posterior means and 95% credibility intervals for the parameters of the fitted spatio-temporal models.
In each model, the abundance of infection category one is considered as the baseline factor level for every model. Whenever the credibility interval does not include zero (denoted with bold), the effect is considered significant. For temporal and spatial range, and the nominal variance, significance cannot be estimated as they can only get positive values. For more information about the predictors, please see the Model Variables-section in the Methods.
| Model | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Parameter | Coinfection presence in a pathogen population (0/1) |
Number of new strains within a population | Successful pathogen population overwintering (0/1) |
| Intercept | −1.04,(−1.16,–0.92) | −0.38,(−0.49,–0.27) | 1.17, (0.93, 1.41) |
| Number of coinfections | not fitted |
0.06,
(0.02, 0.11) |
0.28,(0.11, 0.46) |
| Number of strains |
1.07,
(0.93, 1.21) |
0.08,
(0.04, 0.13) |
0.34,(0.18, 0.5) |
| Abundance of infection (category 2) |
0.37,
(0.22, 0.53) |
−0.03, (−0.08, 0.02) |
0.39,
(0.27, 0.51) |
| Abundance of infection (category 3) |
0.61,
(0.46, 0.75) |
−0.04, (−0.1, 0.01) |
0.55,
(0.39, 0.72) |
| Year 2013 | not fitted |
0.17,
(0.03, 0.32) |
0.05, (−0.27, 0.37) |
| Year 2014 | not fitted |
1.45,
(1.33, 1.58) |
0.52,
(0.19, 0.85) |
| Pathogen connectivity () | 0.05, (−0.08, 0.19) |
0.02, (−0.02, 0.07) |
−0.04, (−0.19, 0.1) |
| Host population size (logm2) | 0.01, (−0.12, 0.14) |
0.09,
(0.04, 0.14) |
0.03, (−0.1, 0.16) |
| Temporal autocorrelation () | 0.03, (−0.41, 0.43) |
0, (−0.41, 0.41) |
−0.08, (−0.43, 0.28) |
| Spatial range (meters) | 11410, (460, 50811) |
14229, (3266, 38058) |
8512, (1775, 25860) |
| Nominal variance) | 0.2, (0, 1.33) |
0.07, (0.01, 0.22) |
0.45, (0.1, 1.28) |