Table 2.
Summary of prediction error in hours for photic only and PNP models across the shift schedule.
| n | Mean (h) | Range (h) | Prediction Error Mean (h) | Prediction Error Absolute Mean (h) | Prediction Error Min (h) | Prediction Error Max (h) | Prediction within ±30 min | Prediction within ±60 min | Prediction within ±120 min | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diurnal Schedule | ||||||||||
| aMT6s Phase | 25 | 3.97 (1.10) | 2.30–6.75 | |||||||
| Photic Only Model | 25 | 3.92 (0.73) | 2.97–5.66 | 0.05 (0.85)* | 0.65 (0.53) | 0.00 | 1.77 | 52% | 64% | 100% |
| PNP Model | 25 | 3.67 (0.68) | 2.77–5.06 | 0.30 (0.94) | 0.69 (0.69) | 0.01 | 2.87 | 56% | 80% | 96% |
| Night Schedule | ||||||||||
| aMT6s Phase | 25 | 5.32 (1.76) | 1.85–8.93 | |||||||
| Photic Only Model | 25 | 4.58 (0.78) | 3.28–6.05 | 0.74 (1.46)** | 1.19 (1.11) | 0.01 | 4.75 | 32% | 56% | 84% |
| PNP Model | 25 | 5.35 (1.13) | 3.53–7.73 | −0.03 (1.24) | 0.95 (0.77) | 0.04 | 3.09 | 28% | 68% | 92% |
| Phase Shift | ||||||||||
| aMT6s Phase Shift | 25 | −1.35 (1.81) | −5.05–3.13 | |||||||
| Photic Only Model | 25 | −0.66 (0.70) | −2.41–0.56 | −0.69 (1.60)** | 1.30 (1.08) | 0.00 | 3.65 | 32% | 48% | 76% |
| PNP Model | 25 | −1.68 (1.02) | −3.68–0.06 | 0.33 (1.39) | 1.11 (0.88) | 0.07 | 3.22 | 32% | 56% | 80% |
Note: aMT6s = urinary 6-sulphatoxymelatonin, PNP = photic and non-photic inputs, SD = standard deviation, *p < 0.05; **p < 0.001 for comparisons between photic and PNP models.