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. 2019 Jul 31;9:11126. doi: 10.1038/s41598-019-47645-z

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© The Author(s) 2019

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

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Model structure. Core structure of the transmission model. S = susceptible, L = latently infected, I_N = smear negative TB, I_P = smear positive TB, C = post 3HP. Susceptible individuals are infected at a rate that depends on the prevalence of active disease. Following infection, some proportion progress directly to active disease (primary progression), the remainder entering the M.tb infected state. Infected individuals may remain infected, progress to disease (reactivation) or be re-infected, with some reduced risk of developing primary disease due to their prior infection. Individuals with active disease can die of TB, self-cure, or be diagnosed and treated for TB (recovery). Dashed arrows indicate the reduction in progression to TB (or treatment of M.tb infection) as a result of preventive therapy (3HP). For clarity the age structure, background mortality and HIV structure are not shown in the figure.