Table 1.
Parameter | Description | Value (mean and 95% CI) |
Source |
---|---|---|---|
SEP,COR | Sensitivity of COR for prevalent TB |
0.91 (0.78–0.97) |
Darboe et al.10 |
SEP,IGRA | Sensitivity of IGRA for prevalent TB |
0.84 (0.78–0.91) |
Metcalfe et al.30 |
SEI,COR | Sensitivity of COR for progression |
0.71 (0.57–0.82) |
Zak et al.9, Penn-Nicholson et al.31, Fiore-Gartland et al.11 |
SEI,IGRA | Sensitivity of IGRA for progression |
0.72 (0.58–0.82) |
Rangaka et al.32 |
SPCOR | Specificity of COR for progression* |
0.84 (0.79–0.88) |
Penn-Nicholson et al.31, Fiore-Gartland et al.11 |
SEL,IGRA | Sensitivity of IGRA for M.tb infection |
0.78 (0.73–0.82) |
Pai et al.33 |
SPL,IGRA | Specificity of IGRA for M.tb infection |
0.96 (0.94–0.98) |
Pai et al.33 |
SED | Sensitivity of diagnosis (Xpert) |
0.89 (0.81–0.94) |
Steingart et al.34 |
SPD | Specificity of diagnosis (Xpert) |
0.99 (0.96–1) |
Steingart et al.34 |
Adh3HP | Proportion of those starting 3HP who complete (used in NNT calculation) | 0.82 (0.61–0.95) | Sterling et al.4, Sandgren et al.35 |
Eff3HP | Efficacy of 3HP for preventing progression to TB in those who complete (used in NNT calculation) | 0.6 (0.48–0.7) | Smieja et al.3. Assumes that 3HP is non-inferior to isoniazid4. |
L | Proportion of population M.tb infected |
0.5 (0.2–0.8) |
Assumption |
I | Proportion of population who will progress to TB (incidence) |
0.0046 (0.0028–0.0064) |
Calculated for HIV-uninfected adults from WHO incidence estimates (see Appendix) |
P | Proportion of population with prevalent TB |
0.0076 (0.0046–0.0106) |
Calculated for HIV-uninfected adults from WHO incidence estimates (see Appendix) |
Confidence intervals based on ACS/SHIP data were calculated using Wilson score interval. All parameters were assumed to follow beta distributions. Shape and scale parameters were estimated from median and 95% CI using the rriskdistributions package in R36. The susceptible population, S = 1 − L − I − P. *The specificity of COR is assumed to be independent of true infection status.