Table 3.
Performance Metrics for a Clinical Prediction Rule and a MRSA-Culture-Only Model Created to Predict MRSA Transmission in Nursing Homes Using Development and Validation Data Sets, United States, 2012–2016
| Modela | C Statistic | 95% CI | Sensitivity, % | 95% CI | Specificity, % | 95% CI | Positive Predictive Value | 95% CI | Negative Predictive Value | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Development set | ||||||||||
| Prediction rule | 0.70 | 0.66, 0.74 | 76 | 69, 82 | 49 | 47, 51 | 12 | 10, 14 | 96 | 94, 97 |
| MRSA positivity in anterior nares culture | 0.62 | 0.59, 0.66 | 61 | 53, 67 | 64 | 62, 66 | 14 | 11, 16 | 95 | 93, 96 |
| Validation set | ||||||||||
| Prediction rule | 0.48 | 0.44, 0.53 | 50 | 43, 58 | 49 | 47, 51 | 6 | 5, 8 | 94 | 92, 95 |
| MRSA positivity in anterior nares culture | 0.67 | 0.63, 0.70 | 78 | 72, 84 | 55 | 53, 57 | 10 | 9, 12 | 97 | 97, 98 |
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; MRSA, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus.
a The model was developed among residents of community-based nursing homes recruited from March 26, 2012, to May 1, 2014 (development set) and applied to residents of Department of Veterans Affairs–based nursing homes recruited from September 19, 2012, to January 6, 2016 (validation set).