Table 5.
Synthetic control estimates of average treatment effect of CRC adoption on child mortality and vaccination rates
| Dependent variable | Average treatment effect estimated in: | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | |
| Infant mortality rate | −1.87 | −1.87 | − 1.62 | −1.22 | −0.59 | 0.15 | 0.93 | 1.88 |
| Under-5 mortality rate | −0.87 | −1.07 | − 0.87 | −0.30 | 0.66 | 1.88 | 3.23 | 5.24 |
| BCG vaccine rate | 2.54* | 4.99** | 5.49* | 2.78 | 3.72+ | 4.47 | 2.71 | −0.97 |
| DTP1 vaccine rate | 1.36 | 3.04 | 3.53 | 1.92 | 1.23 | 1.98 | 2.60 | 1.84 |
| DTP3 vaccine rate | 5.66* | 5.44+ | 6.71+ | 4.56 | 5.27 | 4.33 | 5.61 | 0.10 |
| MCV1 vaccine rate | −0.13 | 0.97 | 11.19* | 6.89 | 5.43 | 11.72* | 7.73* | 3.47 |
| Polio3 vaccine rate | 4.45+ | 4.82+ | 6.45+ | 2.96 | 3.95 | 5.55+ | 7.53* | 3.24 |
Note. All analyses match countries that adopted the CRC in 1990 with synthetic control groups of countries that adopted the CRC after 1992, based on the average values of these predictor variables from 1985 to 1989: ln (population), ln (GDP per capita), ODA as percent of GNI, Polity IV democracy index, and the relevant dependent variable. The treatment groups include 43 and 41 countries for the mortality and vaccination analyses, respectively. The control groups are drawn from 21 and 18 countries for those analyses, respectively
+ p < .10; * p < .05; ** p < .01