Table 3.
Performance of Serum Metabolite Panel, AFP, or Both in Prediction of HCC by Year Before Clinical Diagnosis in Cohort 2 of the Validation Set
| 1 Year Before (n = 10 × 2) | 1.5 Years Before (n = 16 × 2) | 2 Years Before (n = 28 × 2) | 2.5 Years Before (n = 37 × 2) | 3 Years Before (n = 42 × 2) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2‐Meta | |||||
| AUC | 0.790 | 0.738 | 0.689 | 0.647 | 0.635 |
| (95% CI) | (0.581‐0.999) | (0.557‐0.920) | (0.550‐0.828) | (0.522‐0.773) | (0.513‐0.751) |
| Sensitivity (%) | 80.0 | 75.0 | 75.0 | 70.3 | 71.4 |
| Specificity (%) | 80.0 | 68.8 | 57.1 | 51.4 | 47.6 |
| AFP | |||||
| AUC | 0.740 | 0.674 | 0.633 | 0.619 | 0.622 |
| (95% CI) | (0.518‐0.962) | (0.482‐0.866) | (0.482 ‐0.783) | (0.489‐0.750) | (0.500‐0.745) |
| Sensitivity (%) | 40.0 | 37.5 | 28.6 | 27.0 | 26.2 |
| Specificity (%) | 100.0 | 93.8 | 96.4 | 97.3 | 97.6 |
| 2‐Meta&AFP | |||||
| AUC | 0.880 | 0.789 | 0.742 | 0.726 | 0.721 |
| (95% CI) | (0.723‐1.037) | (0.618‐0.961) | (0.610‐0.874) | (0.608‐0.844) | (0.610‐0.833) |
| Sensitivity (%) | 60.0 | 68.8 | 64.3 | 64.9 | 64.3 |
| Specificity (%) | 100.0 | 87.5 | 78.6 | 78.4 | 78.6 |
Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; 2‐Meta, serum metabolite panel.