Table 1.

Epidemiological predictions of simulated ASF epidemics with surveillance measures adopted in France (24).

	Index cases
	Nucleus/Multiplier/Farrowing herds				Free-range herds
	Zone 1	Zone 2	Zone 3	Zone 4
Proportion of undetected outbreaks (%)	12.6	7.1	6.7	6.4	84.8
Time to first detection (days)	15 [11; 21]	14 [11; 20]	14 [11; 20]	14 [11; 19]	9 [6; 26]
Duration of epidemics (days)	23 [15; 47]	22 [15; 38]	22 [15; 41]	21 [15; 36]	20 [6; 47]
Number of infected herds	2 [1; 8]	2 [1; 6]	2 [1; 6]	2 [1; 5]	1 [1; 4]
Number of detected herds	2 [1; 7]	2 [1; 5]	2 [1; 6]	2 [1; 5]	0 [0; 1]
Number of culled animals	3,680 [1020; 14293]	3,019 [1116; 9514]	3,121 [1074; 11498]	2,814 [1100; 9185]	0 [0; 1248]
Number of clinical visits	102 [20; 464]	96 [28; 366]	151 [38; 542]	235 [88; 633]	90 [0; 305]
Number of serological visits	6 [1; 73]	9 [1; 55]	18 [3; 95]	32 [7; 108]	0 [0; 13]
Number of virological visits	3 [1; 32]	3 [1; 18]	4 [1; 34]	8 [1; 36]	0 [0; 10]

Index cases were selected according to the production type and density zones (Figure 2). Results are presented as medians and 5th and 95th percentiles.