Table 3.

Epidemiological predictions of simulated ASF epidemics with surveillance measures adopted in France (7) and additional screening of small production sites.

	Index cases
	Nucleus/Multiplier/Farrowing herds				Free-range herds
	Zone 1	Zone 2	Zone 3	Zone 4
Proportion of undetected outbreaks (%)	1.7	1.3	1.4	1.4	3.7
First detection (days)	15 [11; 22]	14 [11; 21]	14 [11; 20]	14 [11; 19]	10 [1; 17]
Duration of epidemics (days)	23.5 [15; 50]	22 [15; 39]	22 [15; 44]	22 [14; 39]	12 [2; 27]
Number of infected herds	2 [1; 9]	2 [1; 6]	2 [1; 6]	2 [1; 5]	1 [1; 2]
Number of detected herds	2 [1; 9]	2 [1; 6]	2 [1; 6]	2 [1; 5]	1 [0; 2]
Number of culled animals	3,781 [1020; 15879]	3,048 [1110; 10406]	3,210 [1121; 13277]	2,985 [1100; 10187]	23 [0; 920]
Number of clinical visits	105 [21; 455]	106 [27; 358]	164 [42; 603]	255 [93; 646]	31 [3; 192]
Number of serological visits	7 [1; 83]	10 [1; 57]	19 [3; 108]	36 [8; 121]	2 [0; 19]
Number of virological visits	3 [1; 33]	3 [1; 21]	5 [1; 48]	11 [1; 49]	1 [0; 15]

Index cases were selected according to the production type and density zones (Figure 2). Results are presented as medians and 5th and 95th percentiles.