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. 2019 Jul 23;5(3):e11780. doi: 10.2196/11780

Table 2.

Scoring method for model 1 (from Australian Influenza Surveillance Reports [7] and NNDSS [5]).

Year Actual impact of season Parametersa Total score (max=20) Severity indexb, %
Timing of seasonal onset (score) Relative magnitude of influenza activity (score) Dominant strain (score) Vaccine mismatch in the season (score) Early season deaths (score)
2007 Severe 1.1 (1) 1.3 (1) A/H3N2 (3) All strains (4) 18c (3) 12 60
2008 Moderate 1.7 (2) 2.8 (4) B (1) 1 strain (2) 3c (1) 10 50
2009 Very severe (pandemic) 13.7 (4) 19.3 (4) Novel/pandemic strain or A/H1N1pdm09 (4) All strains (4) 61 (4) 20 100
2010 Mild 1.2 (1) 0.3 (0) A/H1N1pdm09 (2) None (1) 2 (1) 5 25
2011 Moderate 1.1 (1) 1.4 (1) A/H1N1pdm09 (2) None (1) 10 (2) 7 35
2012 Severe 2.5 (3) 1.4 (1) A/H3N2 (3) >1 but not all strains (3) 23 (3) 13 65
2013 Moderate 1.1 (1) 0.8 (0) A/H1N1pdm09 (2) 1 strain (2) 11 (2) 7 35
2014 Moderate 1.1 (1) 1.2 (1) A/H1N1pdm09 (2) 1 strain (2) 22 (3) 9 45
2015 Moderate 1.5 (1) 2.9 (4) B (1) None (1) 46 (4) 11 55
2016 Moderate 1.0 (0) 1.5 (1) A/H1N1pdm09 (2) None (1) 17 (3) 7 35
2017 Severe 1.3 (1) 2.1 (3) A/H3N2 (3) 1 strain (2) 43 (4) 13 65
2018d Moderate 0.6 (0) 1.0 (0) A/H1N1pdm09 (2) None (1) 35 (3) 6 30

aTiming of seasonal onset: ratio of laboratory-confirmed influenza notifications in May/January to April average [5]; relative magnitude of influenza activity: ratio of laboratory-confirmed influenza notifications in May compared to last 5 years’ average [5]; dominant strain: dominant strain in circulation [7]; vaccine mismatch in season: vaccine mismatch with dominant strain(s) [7]; early season deaths: rate per 100,000 population of notified influenza-associated deaths at the end of July in the season [7].

cSeverity index=total score/maximum score.

dInfluenza-associated deaths in 2007 and 2008 were estimated by calculating the proportion (total number of notifications at the end of July/total notifications in the year) multiplied by total deaths reported by the Australian Bureau of Statistics for 2007 and 2008, accordingly.

eProspective year, real-time data.